Fantasy Football Busts and Sleepers

Tomorrow is the NBA draft. It’s a time for a great deal of excitement and intrigue. But if your team doesn’t pick in the first round (Lakers, Cleveland, etc) then it’s not quite as exciting. Unlike the NFL draft, the great majority of people who get drafted in the NBA never become starters. The chances a second round player will make a meaningful impact are low. For all you fans whose team is not likely to draft someone awesome, don’t worry because we will be discussing a different type of draft. Fantasy Football. I’ve asked the best of the Blitz league to get their opinion on this year’s sleepers and busts.

Adam Tate – In 2007 he owned a team with Tom Brady, Wes Welker, LaDainian Tomilson, and Antonio Gates and still only placed third in his league.

Bust - Andre Johnson - Don't get me wrong Andre Johnson will still be good. However, I don't think he warrants being the number 1 receiver this year, and definitely don't think he worth the number 7 pick overall. I understand that he has had back to back great seasons. But the Texans have the toughest schedule in the league. There is a five game stretch where they have to play the Jets, Titans, Eagles, Ravens, Titans in consecutive weeks.

Sleeper - Eddie Royal - ESPN current projects Royal to be 163rd best player on the board. That means in a twelve man league he will be available in the 13th round. Granted last year wasn't the best, but a sophomore slump is not unheard of, and during his rookie year Royal pulled in 91 receptions for nearly 1000 yards.

Joe Kenny – In 2008 he played in three leagues including the Blitz League and took GOLD in all three leagues.

Bust – Lots of players are going to be busts this year: Mark Bulger, Jake Delhomme, Tim Hightower, Hester, Forte and DeSean Jackson (in no particular order).

Sleeper - Chad Henne – Henne has an arm plus he stands to gain with the addition of Brandon Marshall.

Kyle Kenny - Kyle Kenny is the commissioner of the Blitz fantasy football league. In five seasons, Kyle has reached the playoffs four times, with three top-three finishes (Gold in 2005). In all leagues played, Kyle has an overall record of 106-93.

Bust – Lesean McCoy - I was very unconvinced with his role spelling (and subsequently replacing) Brian Westbrook in the lineup. Mike Bell is coming off of a year in New Orleans in which he easily matched the numbers of incumbent starter Pierre Thomas (which were good numbers, mind you). While I won’t outright predict McCoy being supplanted as starter like I famously did two years ago with Kurt Warner and Matt Leinart, I do have my doubts that LeSean is the answer in Philadelphia.

Sleeper – Matt Ryan - Matt Ryan had a satisfactory 2009 season… without a fully functional offense at his disposal. I’m not a scout or an analyst, but such professionals have nothing but rave reviews of Matt Ryan’s development as an NFL quarterback. With two years of quarterbacking successful seasons under his belt, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez on the other side of the ball, and a healthy Michael Turner, a breakout season is in the works that will push Matt Ryan’s value up to that of an upper tier quarterback.

Sleeper #2 – Chaz Schilens - Chaz Schilens was set to rise out of obscurity to emerge as the Raiders top nod option coming into the 2009 season when he suffered a broken foot, missing eight games, and returning to one of the worst merry-go-round situations at quarterback possible. While not completely safe to say Jason Campbell is the savior of Oakland, it is comforting to know the Raiders have a serviceable quarterback who posted decent numbers even under a terrible offensive line in Washington. To top that, Chaz’s athletic ability puts him at 6-foot-4, a 4.38 40 and incredible hands during training camp last year. Looking at ESPN’s board, I would be comfortable moving Chaz above several other receivers for the upcoming draft.

Mark Mills – Mark has played with various team names including: Salt Lake Slutzz, Crazy Crack Clowns, Dead Rabbits, and Apocalypse ponies.

Bust - Shonn Greene - I know he's on the Jets, but that doesn't mean he is a sure thing to run wild. I think he might do okay, but to say he is #12 with nothing really proven is too risky, and I can see a bust.

Sleeper - Kevin Kolb - The Eagles pass heavy offense is going to help Kolb rack up the fantasy points. The team obviously has extreme confidence in Kolb, so why should we think otherwise. Remember this is not a rookie on a bad team, this is a guy who has been under the system and learned the right way to lead the team. Does anyone remember Aaron Rodgers??

Matt Christensen – Matt has an overall record of 47-49. He placed second in multiple leagues in 2008.

Bust - Steven Jackson - The guy has been in the top projected rankings for a few years now, and I only remember him having one good season. The Rams are still not good enough to take the load off of him. Every team just stacks the line and plays against him.

Sleeper - Matthew Stafford - I liked how this kid held his own last year. And he had a few games when he did go off and have 3+ touchdowns. I still think that the Lions will have a semi-crappy year, but I think he will be more consistent in his scoring.

Side notes – Ryan Matherws is not a sleeper! In ESPN’s mock draft central he averaging 16^th overall.