Draft Strategy

Disclaimer

I feel that I should begin this article with a disclaimer. Fantasy football is about having fun. The best teams often lose and people often win with strategies based off which player they like most. I personally have had Wes Welker in every league for years simply because he is my favorite player in the NFL. That being said, it is fun to win, and there is a better way to draft than filling your starting spots one by one.

Why do RBs Go off the Board so Early?

Ever wonder why running backs always go off the board first? After all in 2009 nine out of the top ten highest scoring players were quarterbacks. Similarly why do kickers go so late? Last year, Nate Keading outscored such notable players as Marcus Colston, Chad Ochocinco, and LaDainian Tomilson. The answer lies in how deep each position is in a given year. More specifically the point differential between the players within each position.

Running backs go off the board first because there are so few elite backs. Think about it. About half the teams suck at running (ex. the Colts), another third of the teams use several running backs (ex. the Cowboys.) That leaves only a small group of running backs who are capable of putting up a lot of points. Eliminate the injury prone players (ex. Larry Johnson) and there are only a handful of elite running backs.

Calculating the Point Differential

The key to drafting is figuring out how big the drop off is between any given player and the best player of that position that will still be available if you waited a round or two.

Allow me to drive this point home with an example. You have the very first pick in your ten man league. You have decided to spend your pick on the player who is projected to score more points than anyone else, Drew Brees. You then spend the next three rounds picking up a RB and two WRs. At the beginning of the fifth round you realize that you need your second RB so you pick up the best one available, Felix Jones. ESPN projects that the Brees / Jones combo will award you 470 points. Now, if instead you drafted Chris Johnson first overall and waited to pick up an average QB like Tony Romo at the start of the fifth, you would earn 550 points. Thus, even though Brees stands to earn more points than Johnson, Johnson is the better pick.

Now don’t assume what I have said means that you want to pick running backs over any other position. Once you get past those elite running backs things start to even out. For instance, if in our hypothetical we are now picking in the third and seventh rounds and we still need a RB and a QB, it now behooves you to pick the QB first. The best running back you will get in the third is Shone Greene and the best quarterback you will get in the seventh is Matt Ryan. That combo will earn you 391. Conversely, in the third you could still get Tom Brady, and Brandon Jacobs will still be around in the seventh. The Brady / Jacobs combo is worth 438 points.

Watch Out for the Runs

In an ideal world, you could sit down calculate out the drop off between each player and calculate out the perfect draft. But things don’t work out that way.

Let’s say according to your math and ESPN’s projections the best plan of action is to draft a RB in the first round, a WR in the second, a QB in the third, a RB in the fourth, a WR in the fifth, and a TE in the sixth. (I have no idea if this is really a sound strategy.) Things are going to plan until right before you pick in the fifth round someone picks up Dallas Clark and you feel that a run on the TEs is about to happen.

This puts you in a tricky situation. Sticking with your plan to draft a TE in the sixth would now be foolish. Antonio Gates will be gone and the difference between the third and the ninth TE is only 10 points. So you have to decide whether to grab Gates and his 26 point lead over the next best TE, or wait until the eleventh round when you can probably pick up a TE just as good as the one you would have gotten in the sixth.

A similar run could happen with the QBs, so be aware of where the drop off occurs. From the #1 QB to the #5 QB there is a 49 point drop off but from the #6 QB to the #10 QB there is only a 20 point drop off.

This is too complicated

Unless you are a mathematical wizard like Dave Barney or have way too much time on your hands, it is too much work to try and keep all the point differentials straight. There are just too many moving parts. That's alright. You don't need to know the actual point differentials, but be able to identify where the drop offs occur. Some people use a tiered system. For instance, Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, MJD, and Ray Rice are all tier 1 RBs and Benson, Greene and Grant are tier 3 RBs.

I prefer to ask myself, who will still be available if I waited a round to fill that position? Will there still be a good QB in the fourth round? It all boils down to this: the deeper the position is the more likely you can draft a quality player deeper in the draft.

Fantasy Football Busts and Sleepers

Tomorrow is the NBA draft. It’s a time for a great deal of excitement and intrigue. But if your team doesn’t pick in the first round (Lakers, Cleveland, etc) then it’s not quite as exciting. Unlike the NFL draft, the great majority of people who get drafted in the NBA never become starters. The chances a second round player will make a meaningful impact are low. For all you fans whose team is not likely to draft someone awesome, don’t worry because we will be discussing a different type of draft. Fantasy Football. I’ve asked the best of the Blitz league to get their opinion on this year’s sleepers and busts.

Adam Tate – In 2007 he owned a team with Tom Brady, Wes Welker, LaDainian Tomilson, and Antonio Gates and still only placed third in his league.

Bust - Andre Johnson - Don't get me wrong Andre Johnson will still be good. However, I don't think he warrants being the number 1 receiver this year, and definitely don't think he worth the number 7 pick overall. I understand that he has had back to back great seasons. But the Texans have the toughest schedule in the league. There is a five game stretch where they have to play the Jets, Titans, Eagles, Ravens, Titans in consecutive weeks.

Sleeper - Eddie Royal - ESPN current projects Royal to be 163rd best player on the board. That means in a twelve man league he will be available in the 13th round. Granted last year wasn't the best, but a sophomore slump is not unheard of, and during his rookie year Royal pulled in 91 receptions for nearly 1000 yards.

Joe Kenny – In 2008 he played in three leagues including the Blitz League and took GOLD in all three leagues.

Bust – Lots of players are going to be busts this year: Mark Bulger, Jake Delhomme, Tim Hightower, Hester, Forte and DeSean Jackson (in no particular order).

Sleeper - Chad Henne – Henne has an arm plus he stands to gain with the addition of Brandon Marshall.

Kyle Kenny - Kyle Kenny is the commissioner of the Blitz fantasy football league. In five seasons, Kyle has reached the playoffs four times, with three top-three finishes (Gold in 2005). In all leagues played, Kyle has an overall record of 106-93.

Bust – Lesean McCoy - I was very unconvinced with his role spelling (and subsequently replacing) Brian Westbrook in the lineup. Mike Bell is coming off of a year in New Orleans in which he easily matched the numbers of incumbent starter Pierre Thomas (which were good numbers, mind you). While I won’t outright predict McCoy being supplanted as starter like I famously did two years ago with Kurt Warner and Matt Leinart, I do have my doubts that LeSean is the answer in Philadelphia.

Sleeper – Matt Ryan - Matt Ryan had a satisfactory 2009 season… without a fully functional offense at his disposal. I’m not a scout or an analyst, but such professionals have nothing but rave reviews of Matt Ryan’s development as an NFL quarterback. With two years of quarterbacking successful seasons under his belt, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez on the other side of the ball, and a healthy Michael Turner, a breakout season is in the works that will push Matt Ryan’s value up to that of an upper tier quarterback.

Sleeper #2 – Chaz Schilens - Chaz Schilens was set to rise out of obscurity to emerge as the Raiders top nod option coming into the 2009 season when he suffered a broken foot, missing eight games, and returning to one of the worst merry-go-round situations at quarterback possible. While not completely safe to say Jason Campbell is the savior of Oakland, it is comforting to know the Raiders have a serviceable quarterback who posted decent numbers even under a terrible offensive line in Washington. To top that, Chaz’s athletic ability puts him at 6-foot-4, a 4.38 40 and incredible hands during training camp last year. Looking at ESPN’s board, I would be comfortable moving Chaz above several other receivers for the upcoming draft.

Mark Mills – Mark has played with various team names including: Salt Lake Slutzz, Crazy Crack Clowns, Dead Rabbits, and Apocalypse ponies.

Bust - Shonn Greene - I know he's on the Jets, but that doesn't mean he is a sure thing to run wild. I think he might do okay, but to say he is #12 with nothing really proven is too risky, and I can see a bust.

Sleeper - Kevin Kolb - The Eagles pass heavy offense is going to help Kolb rack up the fantasy points. The team obviously has extreme confidence in Kolb, so why should we think otherwise. Remember this is not a rookie on a bad team, this is a guy who has been under the system and learned the right way to lead the team. Does anyone remember Aaron Rodgers??

Matt Christensen – Matt has an overall record of 47-49. He placed second in multiple leagues in 2008.

Bust - Steven Jackson - The guy has been in the top projected rankings for a few years now, and I only remember him having one good season. The Rams are still not good enough to take the load off of him. Every team just stacks the line and plays against him.

Sleeper - Matthew Stafford - I liked how this kid held his own last year. And he had a few games when he did go off and have 3+ touchdowns. I still think that the Lions will have a semi-crappy year, but I think he will be more consistent in his scoring.

Side notes – Ryan Matherws is not a sleeper! In ESPN’s mock draft central he averaging 16^th overall.

How I Learned to Love Ron Artest

In 2009 I hated the Houston Rockets. During the seven game series between the Lakers and the Rockets I even hated them more than the Boston Celtics, New York Yankees, and the SEC. Absolute disdain. I hated Shane Battier and his flawless defense. I hated Aaron Brooks every time he would fly by the slower Derek Fisher. I absolutely hated everything about Luis Scola - especially his greasy nasty hair. Perhaps most of all I hated Ron Artest. I hated him for the melee, I hated his toughness, I hated his outside shot, I hated him.

By contrast, I loved Trevor Ariza. I loved that he went undrafted, loved that he always played hard, loved his three point shooting, most of all I loved the pivotal steals he made during the series with the Rockets. After that series I had decided that the next time I was back in Los Angeles I was going to buy my first Laker jersey, and it would say Ariza.

Then summer rolled around and the Lakers effectively traded my favorite Laker for Ron - I’m going to jump in the stands and murder you - Artest. As a Laker fan I was more than a little on edge. I understood that Ariza was asking for too much money, but Artest? Really?
During the regular season Ron Ron stunk. His offensive numbers dropped dramatically: 17.1 ppg – 11.0 ppg; 5.2 rpg – 4.3 rpg; .748 ft% - .688 ft%; .399 3% - .3555. More disconcerting than Ron’s offensive struggles was the fact that he just didn’t seem as tough. He no longer imposed fear on those he guarded.

Then the playoffs started and Artest threw up two consecutive stink bombs. Game 1: 3-11 shooting and 3 rebounds; Game 2: 2-10 shooting and 4 rebounds. Most notably his three-point shooting was off – way off. During the first round of the playoffs Artest shot a miserable .188% from behind the ark. That’s when the public really turned on him. Every time he got the ball thousands of fans offered silent prayers that he would not shoot. As my roommates pointed out he became the most disrespected starter on an NBA team.

That was the first time I started rooting for Artest. My heart broke for him. It seemed clear that all he wanted to do was put his past behind him. He just wanted the city of L.A. to love him. Instead they hated him. They missed Ariza. They were secretly expecting him to blow up and kill someone at any moment.

He played better during the Utah series, including a brilliant game three on the road. During that game he shot 7-13 and hit 4 three pointers. The Lakers won the game by one point and nailed sucked all the remaining life from the Jazz. And yet, Artest was still disrespected. I started to root for him even more.

He played even better during the Phoenix series. He averaged over 14 points, including a series changing game winner and a 25 point throw down in game 6. Ron Artest was secretly becoming one of my favorites.

Finally, the Lakers met up with the Boston Celtics. Oh how I loathe the Celtics. I am sure that there are few greater pleasures in the world than punching Brian Scalabrine in the face. I am too young to really remember the epic wars in the 60’s and 80’s, but 2008 is more than enough for me. The game 4 meltdown during the 2008 series still gives me nightmares. I cringe when I think of Paul Peirce and that stupid wheelchair.

I was more than a little scared before the start of that first game. But the Lakers came out on fire and wasted the Celtics. The Lakers best player – Ron Artest. The Lakers were an amazing +26 when he was on the court. He shot over 50% from the field, 60% from 3 point land, and 100% from the free throw line. Over the next few games Ron accepted his role as a lock down defender. Paul Pierce still got his points, but it was clear the Lakers were a much better team when Artest was on the court. I really really liked Artest now. I even made some occasional facebook comments about how great he was.

Then Ron Artest won game 7. And make no mistake he was the one who won it. During that first half Kobe and Pau were freaked out of their minds. Every shot that Kobe took was awful. No one could hit the shots that Kobe was taking. And Pau was so nervous that he couldn’t hit a free throw to save his life. (Gasol shot 79% during the season and just 54% during game 7.) Ron Artest on the other hand had 12 second quarter points. He kept the Lakers alive offensively until the rest of the team calmed down Ron stayed awesome down the stretch, hitting a crucial three pointer in the 4th and finishing the game with 20 points. Defensively Artest was even better. He Force Paul Pierce into 5-15 shooting and had 5 steals. Ron Artest was my MVP of the series.

You would think that after his performance during the game I couldn’t get any higher on Ron Artest. You would think wrong. His post game interviews were the funniest things I have seen in a long time. He was bouncing around like a little kid on crack. He thanked his psychiatrist for helping him calm down. He thanked his Dad for beating him up as a kid. He told the world that he was crying before the game. He told the world he was dumb. He even admitted that he didn’t realize he was playing for the championship until they handed him a championship hat. However my favorite correspondence was regarding his crucial three-pointer. He told the world that before he shot the ball he heard the voice of Coach Phil Jackson telling him not to shoot and the voice of God telling him to shoot it.

It is no wonder that Luke Walton said that there is no one on the team that they root for more than Ron. I freaking love Ron Artest.

Texas staying put: What does this mean for the MWC?

Texas announced today that it will remain in the Big 12. Shortly thereafter Texas Tech, and the other Big 12 schools followed suit. Giving us the extremely parodixical situation where the Big 10 has 12 members and the Big 12 only has 10.

What does all this mean for the MWC?

One argument could be made that a Nebraska-less Big 12 is worse than a Boise State driven MWC. If you look at the final standings the MWC finished 4th (Boise State), 6th (TCU), 12 (BYU), and 18th (Utah) whereas the Big 12 only finished 2nd (Texas) and 21st (Texas Tech.) However, MWC shouldn't get their hopes up about stealing the Big 12's automatic bid. In the end the BCS is still about money and Texas brings in more of it than all the MWC schools combined.

More importantly, the MWC may not come out of this whole process unscathed. Now that the Pac 10 has lost its primary target (Texas) it may settle for Utah as a back up plan. This would have two key advantages. First, it would allow the Pac 10 to grab a new TV market. Second, Utah would allow the PAC 10 to finally have a conference final game (under BCS rules you cannot have a league championship game unless you have 12 teams.) This is particularly interesting because the Big 12 teams who were thinking about defecting had no interest in having a championship game.

Would Utah leave? Why wouldn't they? More money, more television time, bigger recruiting market, automatic BCS bid, bragging rights to BYU about being invited while they got snubbed. Sure the rivalry between BYU and Utah will be affected. But the schools could work out some deal where the teams play each other much like BYU plays Utah State every year.

The damage to the MWC might not stop there. The Big 12 may try and rebound by recruiting some more teams. TCU would be the logical choice given their proximity to the rest of the school and their recent success. Fortunately, early reports indicate that the Big 12 seems content only having 10 teams.

Losing Utah would be a big blow to the MWC. There aren't any other teams really worth recruiting. (Unless some really wacky happens and Notre Dame joins.) For now the MWC can do nothing but wait and hope that either the Pac 10 doesn't continue expanding or Utah turns them down.

Big 12 Killers: It’s about more than football.

By Kyle Kenny

Being a Nebraska native, I’ve been watching a little closer than some the whole speculation of Nebraska moving to the Big 10 Conference. Now that move is official. Many have their heads scratching as to why they would move from a conference where they were relative big fish. There are several good reasons, the least having to do with football itself.

I. Show me the money. I am a fan of pro football. I have a lot of friends, however, that are strong proponents for college football. To these friends, they feel more team spirit prevalent and feel it is “less about the money, more about the spirit.” I have always disagreed with these arguments. Measuring team spirit of players and fans between any sport—college or pro—is impossibly subjective of an argument to consider. However, anyone who believes college sports isn’t about the money needs a serious reality check. The mere existence of the BCS is proof that money talks more than passion of the game. Also, while players themselves aren’t necessarily playing for money, some players are playing for the CHANCE to get big money on draft day. Some, as headlined in the news from time to time, DO receive money in the form of kickbacks while attending college. But I am digressing. The Big Ten offers something to Nebraska that the Big 12 couldn’t do during its entire existence: maximize cash flow to the School’s athletic program. I read a recent article that stated on average, the Big Ten schools received as much as $20 M per year from TV contract revenue via the Big Ten network. The Big 12, in comparison, only dished out $7-12 M, depending on the school. Fans nationwide will decry this as a “money grab.” But when you’re talking money in this proportion, it no longer becomes an athletics department issue, but rather a business issue for the school as a whole. This brings me to my next point.

II. Academics. Hopefully, college fans have not forgotten that the team in which they support is not an end in itself. Rather, it is merely an auxiliary to a much more important academic institution for higher learning and career development. Many fans are not aware that schools in the Big Ten are very much academically superior to schools in most other major conferences. While Nebraska is likely not currently on par in academic prestige as current Big Ten schools, the move will likely pressure Nebraska to make the changes to help it conform to the higher standards, and hence higher prestige. For the other several thousand attending, or planning to attend UNL that AREN’T part of any athletics program, dividends will be had in the form of a more relevant and prestigious degree.

III. Insurance. Nebraska knew that the conference was under attack, and with other power schools such as Texas and Oklahoma being targets of other major conferences, Nebraska didn’t want to be the odd man out. Nebraska insisted that it considered all alternatives, and decided the Big Ten invite was something they had wanted for years. Whether this be the real case or not, the application of game theory among the Big Twelve schools in my opinion had a definite role; in this instance of head games, Nebraska concluded that the other schools, despite their verbal stances, were already leaning on leaving. Whether or not that was truly the case will forever be open to speculation.

IV. Sports. Honestly, in my opinion, football (among other sports) itself was the least of the factors leading to the decision to move. I am likely wrong; however, in my defense, I would find difficulty accepting any argument that the Big Ten is far superior to the Big Twelve in strength of schedule, if at all superior. What this move does do is open doors to new regions/states/markets for recruiting purposes for all sports programs in Nebraska Athletics.

It will be intriguing to see the fallout of these conference decisions. Will Texas, Oklahoma, and co. move to the Pac-10? What other schools will the Pac-10 lure away if things don’t go as planned? Will MWC successfully snag Kansas and Missouri to keep itself from being part of the other, smaller conferences left in the dust? Will the Big Twelve figure out a way to salvage itself with its own add-ons of BYU and TCU? Whatever the result, bring on the chaos!

10 Odd World Cup Stories

The U.S. mens team’s bus got stuck behind an elephant. Twice.

The Brazillian referees who will be reffing the USA v. England match have been studying English obscenities to be able to properly award yellow cards.

The Netherlands soccer team has been banned from using Twitter after one of its members posted an offensive video.

Spain has banned its players from going on facebook or twitter because the sites are too distracting.

France’s sports minister is complaining that the French team is spending too much money on its hotel accomodations.

Argentina's Jonas Gutierrez fogot to pack any clothes for his trip to South Africa

Chile and England have forbidden their players from having sex during the World Cup. England has even installed video cameras to ensure that the WAGs (wives and girl-friends) keep their distance.

John Travolta danced in front of Australia’s team in an effort to wish them luck.

A London newspaper has reported that English striker Wayne Rooney looks like Shrek.

The announcers will likely have trouble pronouncing some of the names of the players: Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, Zdravko Kuzmanovic, Zlatan Ljubijankic, Sokratis Papastathopoulos.

Worst Time of the Year

Enjoy the NBA playoffs because we are almost upon the worst time of the year. That awful stretch of time when there is no NBA, NFL, NHL, college basketball, college football, or even smaller collegiate sports such as volleyball, lacrosse, or rugby. Baseball is all that is left, and even then all you get is meaningless uneventful games with playoffs still months away.

All that being said here are 5 reasons why this summer will be better than most.

Fantasy Football - FF has hit its height. It's no longer a guilty pleasure, but embraced by the casual football fan. As such new articles regarding draft strategy will periodically be released on the internet.

The Lebron Sweepstakes - This is the biggest free agent summer in recent history. Just about every great player can opt out of their contract. There will be a lot of movement and a lot of fun stories to follow.

Tiger Woods Redemption - It will be interesting to see if Tiger can get his game back.

Conference Realignment - the Big 10, Pac 10, and MWC are all looking to expand. The Big 12 and WAC are going to get screwed. How will your team fair?

The World Cup - the greatest spectacle in sports. Regardless if you like soccer or not, this is the most important sporting event. National pride will be on the line. U.S. v. England: The revolutionary war continues! It's going to be good.

Confrence Realignment: Revival of the Rocky Mountain Conference?

Today was supposed to be the day that the Mountain West Conference added Boise State to help enhance its resume for automatic BCS qualification. Instead the MWC released a statement that they were not going to do anything…for now. The move has infuriated fans of the smurf turf as well as many loyal fans of the MWC. However, at least one poorly educated sports writer thinks it was the right decision.

By the end of this month the collegiate sporting landscape as we know it is going to be drastically different. The Pac 10 and the Big 10 are going to expand, and from the looks of it they are going to tear apart the Big 12. It seems that the Pac 10 has its eyes on Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and either Colorado or Baylor. The Big 10 will snatch up Nebraska and Missouri. Its not quite clear how all of this will work out, but the rumors have gotten so strong that the Big 12 has issued an ultimatum to Nebraska and Missouri to either declare their loyalty to the Big 12 or get gone.

That’s why the MWC is buying its time. It doesn’t know how the landscape is going to play out. For instance, if the Big 12 really does get destroyed then the MWC doesn’t need to do anything to ensure that it becomes one of the major powers. However the MWC has indicated that it would be willing to add up to as many 6 new teams, meaning that it would likely go after the Big 12 left overs plus any WAC teams that it really wants.

My favorite theory, albeit rather unlikely, is the revival of the Rocky Mountain Conference. This conference would consist of the following rivals: Byu v. Utah; Tcu v. Boise State; Kansas v. Kansas State; Colorado v. Colorado State; and then two other schools likely UNLV and Air force. The most exciting thing about this set up is that as a new conference we could get out of the horrible agreement that we have with The Mountain and CBS. Also, think of what a basketball powerhouse we would become with the addition of Kansas and Kansas State.

My least favorite theory involves the MWC getting pilfered. The Big 12 after losing so many great teams snatches up TCU and BSU to try and recuperate. The Pac 10 wanting to grab the Utah and Colorado markets grabs Utah and CSU. I don’t think that this is that likely either. A scary, and more probable proposition, is that the Big 12 is able to maintain several but not all of its teams and only needs to get a couple of more teams. If this is the case, TCU is going to be sorely tempted with the automatic birth that the Big 12 provides.

In the end, it comes down to money not conference competitiveness. Oklahoma, Texas, Nebraska, and Missouri, make a lot of money and the Pac 10 and the Big 10 want a piece of that money. That’s why Boise State may get left out in the cold, they are a great football school but they cant bring in the dough. By Friday, when Nebraska and Missouri have to decide whether the bolt or to stay, things are going to either be a lot clearer or a lot more murky in the world of college sports. I personally am hoping for the later.