o Texas and Oklahoma are offered a chance to go to the Pac 12. This would effectively destroy the Big 12. The Big East, MWC, ACC, and SEC start eying what teams they would pick up should the Big 12 dissolve.
o Oklahoma wants to join the Pac 12 but Texas doesn’t.
o Texas negotiates a deal where it can stay in the Big 12 and get a lucrative television deal. Without Texas, the Pac 12 is no longer interested in Oklahoma. Oklahoma gets stuck in the Big 12.
o A year later Texas A&M grows tired of being bullied by Texas and lobbies to join the SEC.
o The SEC informs A&M that it can only be admitted if it has clearance to leave the Big 12.
o Texas A&M seeks permission to leave from the Big 12 conference.
o The Big 12 gives Texas A&M permission to leave; however, the individual teams remain silent.
o Texas A&M makes a public announcement that it plans to leave the Big 12.
o The Big 12 attempts to get back to 10 or 12 teams by inviting Notre Dame, Arkansas, and BYU to join the Big 12. Notre Dame and Arkansas both decline. BYU with-holds judgment until it sees how things will play out.
o The Pac 12 seeing the fragile state of the Big 12 invites Texas and Oklahoma.
o Oklahoma still really wants to go to the Pac 12. Texas would still like to stay in the Big 12. This time Oklahoma has the leverage because the Big 12 without Texas A&M and Oklahoma is pretty weak.
o Eight of the Big 12 schools realize that if Texas A&M, Texas, and Oklahoma leave there will not be a Big 12 conference anymore. The 8 schools inform Texas A&M and the SEC that they will assert their legal rights if Texas A&M joins the SEC.
o The SEC informs Texas A&M that it cannot join until these legal matters are resolved.
o Texas A&M releases a statement stating that it was deceived by the Big 12 and that it is being held hostage.
o Texas and Oklahoma still haven’t made a decision.
o This leads us with three likely scenarios:
o The most likely scenario: Some compromise will occur where Texas A&M joins the SEC, Texas and Oklahoma join the Pac 12, some of the more prominent schools will join other BCS conferences and the other Big 12 schools get left high and dry. College football eventually transforms into 4 super-conferences: the Pac 16, the Big 16 (formally Big 12), the SEC and the Big 15 (formally Big 10).
o The somewhat likely scenario: Texas convinces Oklahoma to stay. The Big 12 invites BYU and the Big 12 survives with 10 teams. This lasts until the next conference realignment at which point the Big 12 either expands or dies.
o The least likely possible scenario: The 8 teams effectively block Texas A&M for another year or two. Nothing happens until the next conference shake-up.
