Last Year's Fantasy Predictions

Last year I gathered some the biggest fantasy football nerds I knew of and asked them a very simple question: Who will be 2010's sleepers and who will be 2010's busts. Well 2010 is over and before we make this years predictions it is time to see how they did.

Adam Tate

Last year- Adam predicted that Andre Johnson would not be the #1 receiver due to the rough schedule that the Texans predicted. Adam also predicted that Eddie Royal would bounce back from a disappointing sophmore year.

Analysis - Adam was partially correct. Andre Johnson was not the #1 receiver and in fact finished 8th among WRs, trailing Lloyd, Bowe, White, Jennings, Johnson, Wallace, and Nicks. However, Eddie Royal did not bounce back. He finished the season with a mere 75 points and barely caught half of the passes thrown to him.

Joe Kenny

Last year - Joe had a whole list of players on his bust list including: Bulger, Delhomme, Hightower, Hester, Forte, and Desean Jackson. He also thought that Chad Henne would be 2010's sleeper.

Analysis: Mixed bag. Bulger and Delhomme were awful but no one really expected them to do anything. Hightower and Hester were disapointments. However, Forte finished with 199 points and Jackson was a touchdown machine once he teamed up with Michael Vick. Joe was way off with with his Henne prediction. Henne finished as the 25th QB behind Shaun Hill and John Kitna.

Kyle Kenny

Last year - Kyle predicted that Lesean McCoy would be a bust because Mike Bell would steal many of McCoy's carries. Kyle also predicted that Matt Ryan would become an "upper tier" QB due to his continued development and all the offensive weapons at his disposal.

Analysis - McCoy finished 7th. The only RBs projected to finish ahead of him and met those projections were Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson. As for Matt Ryan... Ryan did improve but still finished 8th among QBs.

Mark Mills

Last year - Mark Mills predicted that Shonne Green was not worth the #12 pick and that Kevin Kolb would become the man in Philly.

Analysis - I wish I would have listened to Mark last year. Shonne Green was indeed a bust, scoring only 86 points. LaDanian Tomlinson, who was supposed to be the backup scored 149. Kevin Kolb didn't become the man in Philly but that was only because Michael Vick was the comeback player of the century.

Matt Christensen

Last year - Matt predicted that Stephen Jackson would not be a top RB because the Rams have no other offensive weapons and teams will stack the box against him. Matt's sleeper was Mathew Stafford, preemptively because Matt likes his name.

Analysis - Matt was mostly right on the Stephen Jackson call. Jackson finished as the 12 RB and dealt with a nagging hip injury all year long. Unfortunately Stafford was injured almost all season long and finished with a mere 49 points. 1 point less than Jimmy Clausen.

Recap: Finding a bona fide sleeper is tough. Not one of us nailed our sleeper projections and some of us were way off base. As a group we fared much better at identifying which players were over-rated. Mark's prediction that Shonne Green would be a bust was probably the best prediction made by the group. Now that your confidence in us is completely and utterly destroyed, make sure to our next article which will give predictions for the 2011 season.

Overrated! - Clap Clap - Clap Clap Clap

(Texas is objectively the most over-rated team over the last 5 years)

Every year the preseason polls come out and every year we look back with 20 / 20 hindsight and notice that the voters missed something. Case in point, last year's National Champion Auburn was ranked 23rd in the preseason polls and Stanford, who finished 4th was not even ranked. Meanwhile Teaxas started the season ranked #6 and finished with a losing record.

This year's poll (http://espn.go.com/college-football/rankings) will be no different. Some team will vastly outperform expectations (Air Force) and another will flounder under the pressure (Texas A&M.)

This conundrum often sparks the debate whether we should rely on preseason polls at all. On the one hand, preseason polls are consistently incorrect and play too big of a factor of determining later polls. But on the other hand, the polls allow fans to get excited for big non-conference games which typically take place in the beginning of the season.

Today's article doesn't take a stance on this controversial issue. Rather it objectively looks at what teams are consistently over-rated and under-rated by the preseason AP voters.

(Andrew Luck lead his Cardinals from being unranked to 4th in the nation.)

Method to the Madness

I compared the AP preseason poll with the AP post season poll. If a team finished two spots ahead of where it was projected, it was awarded 2 points. If it finished two spots behind where it was projected it had 2 points deducted. No team could gain or lose more than 10 points in any given year.

There are some inherent flaws in this system. First, it cannot account for the fact that the poll voters are still biased at the end of the season. Second, it punishes those teams who are highly ranked at the beginning of the season and rewards those who are just outside the top 25.

Observations

* I did not foresee Cincinnati being the most under-rated team over the last 5 years.

* The former Mountain West did really well with BYU, TCU, and Utah all being ranked as the top 10 under-rated teams.

*The voters either vastly under-rate BYU over vastly over-rate BYU.

*After a team outperforms its expectations in one year, the voters tend to over-estimate that teams abilities the following year.

*The SEC only had 1 team (Arkansas) in the top 10 under-rated teams, but also only had 1 team (Georgia) in the top ten over-rated teams.

* The ACC appears to be the most overrated conference with 3 of its teams finishing in the top 10 most over-rated teams.

*Oregon has consistently outperformed its expectations. Posting a positive number for the last 4 years running.

Dream Draft

I have been planning on creating my own mock draft for a while now, but it has just proven too difficult. I have never heard of half of the players projected to go in the first round, and have seen even fewer of them play. So, instead of putting down what I think will happen, I decided to build a draft representing what i would like to see. This of course is subject to 2 ground rules: first, while the draft selections do not have to be probable, they do have to be within the realm of possibility, second, like most mock drafts no trades are allowed. I am also limiting this mock to just the lottery, since history tells us that most players taken outside of the lottery will never start in the NBA. So without further ado here is my 2011 mock draft.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers - Derrick Williams

Many experts believe that Derrick Williams is the best player in this years draft, and after watching him play in the NCAA tournament it is hard to argue with that assessment. However, I am putting Derrick Williams not because I like him, but because i dislike Irving. I dislike Irving from a scouting perspective because he only played a handful of games last year due to injury, but more importantly, I dislike Irving because he seems like a punk. I have listened to several ESPN interviews, and each time i got the distinct impression that Irving was utterly lacking in any humility or grace. After the Lebron fiasco, Cleveland deserves better.

2. Minnesota Timberwolves - Enes Kanter

I'll be honest, one of the main reasons I picked Williams first is the delicious irony of Minnesota considering a point guard. For those who don't remember, the Timberwolves recently spent two high draft choices on point guards. Futhermore, Minnesota is making Ricky Rubio to be the savior of Minnesota basketball (an absurd proclamation considering he was a bench player on his Spanish team.) If really, presented with this proposition I imagine that the Timberwolves would give into one of the underwhelming trade proposals they have been offered. Personally I love the trade rumor of the nubmer 2 pick plus Kevin love for Pau Gasol and Ron Artest, but since there are no trades allowed in this mock draft, I am going with Kanter. The wolves would bump Love down to the floor and be able to play with two 7 footers, a strategy that has worked very well for the Spurs, Lakers, and Mavericks.

3. Utah Jazz - Kyrie Irving

As much as I dislike Irving, the Jazz would be ecstatic if he fell to them at 3. They desperately need someone to D-Will's place, and what better person than the consensus #1 draft prospect. Another bonus, to this scenario is that it eliminates the possibility of Jimmer landing on the Jazz. I love Jimmer, but realistically he probably wont amount to much more than an exciting bench player. Going to the Jazz, would place too high of expectations upon him.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers - Brandon Knight

Cleveland still gets a point guard, and a pretty good one at that. In fact, there are some who project Knight to be a better long term prospect than Irving. The Cavs are going to suck for a while anyway, why not invest in the better long term player.

This scenario may seem like a stretch but it may be Cleveland's best option. Current, rumors have the Jazz taking Kanter at 3. Thus, Cleveland could choose to have Irving and Valanciunas (who wouldn't play for at least a year due to his European league buyout) or Williams and Knight. Heck they could even take Williams and then trade back and pick up Kemba or Jimmer. Or how about this, the Cavs take Williams, the Wolves get so scared that they trade the second pick to Cleveland for the 4th pick and Baron Davis. Thus, Cleveland gets the two best players in the draft. The more and more I think about it, I like the idea of Cleveland taking Williams and watching the T-Wolves freak-out.

5. Toronto Raptors - Kawhi Leonard

I have seen Leonard play on multiple occasions and the kid is a beast. If the Raptors are truly looking for a defensive presence then Leonard should be their man.

6. Washington Wizards - Jan Vesely

Well Vesely is another international prospect that I know nothing about. I do know this much, the Wizards do not need a point guard so that rules out Kemba or Jimmer, and the Wizards do need some rebounding. At 6-11 hopefully Vesely can help out in that category.

7. Sacramento Kings - Kemba Walker

Can you imagine a more fun and entertaining back-court than Tyreke and Kemba? They may not win a lot of games but they sure will score a lot of points. Jimmer would also fit in well here, and supposedly the Maloof's adore him. However, I have other plans for the Jimmer.

8. Detroit Pistons - Jonas Valanciunas

If it were not for Jonas Valanciunas's scary buyout proposition, he would be a top 4 pick. In fact, there a rumors that Cleveland will still take him at 4 and wait a year. If he falls this far then Detroit should snatch him up. Period.

9. Charlotte Bobcats - Bismack Boyombo

Does anyone care about the Bobcats? Honestly, I couldn't name more than 2 players on their entire team. (And no, Jordan doesn't count.) Let's give them another guy that no one has heard of. Ok, seriously though, the Bobcats need a toughness and defense and Boyombo is supposed to be able to supply both.

10. Milwaukee Bucks - Klay Thompson

I like the Bucks. I like Jennings and I love Bogut. I like that Bogut bought prime seats by the opposing bench and filled them up with the loudest most obnoxious fans that he could find. They are a fun team. I think they need a shooter. They have a slasher in Jennings, and a post presence in Bogut. Having a 6-7 shooting guard seems like perfect fit.

11. Golden State Warriors - Tristian Thompson

Another bigger guy for a team that needs some size.

12. Utah Jazz - Markeif Morris

The Jazz will finally lose A.K. and his horrible contract this year. Although most Jazz fans seem happy to have him gone, they will miss his defense and his shot blocking ability. Markeif Morris is a good defender / shot blocker and would be there best bet at filling the void. Thus, in this draft the Jazz come out with a new franchise point guard and a new shot blocking forward, that seems to fit them pretty well from a need standpoint.

13. Phoenix Suns - Jimmer Fredette

This is my favorite pick of the entire mock. For years and years, Steve Nash was not the MVP we know now. He was a shoot first, pass second point guard who didn't play good defense. (sound familiar Jimmer fans?) It wasn't until his last season at the Mavericks that he finally started piecing it all together. Jimmer Fredette has the vision and the intelligence to make a similar transition. I think the process would go so much smoother if he could play behind Nash for a season and model his game after him. Furthermore, the Suns are more willing than most teams to over-look Jimmer's apathetic stance towards defense.

14. Houston Rockets - Nikola Vucevic

My reasoning is simple: Yao Ming is not going to get healthy. Why not replace the biggest man in the NBA with the biggest man in this years draft? This guy has a 9'5" reach. He only has to jump 7 inches to dunk. He averaged a double double last season, and has a pretty good shooting touch. The down side is that he is not the world's greatest athlete. He sounds like the perfect Yao replacement to me.

There it is - my dream Mock. The funny thing is that this draft is so shallow and so uncertain that any one of these picks could actually happen or I could completely miss all 14. In reality, my dream Mock would involve all sorts of crazy trades and the Lakers some how end up with Dwight Howard, and Lebron James ends up playing in Serbia, but even I can't figure out a way for that to realistically happen.

Rise of the Super-Teams: The Beginning of the End for Small Market Teams?

In 2010, roughly half of the All Star ballot (13 players) was made up of players from twelve different small market cities. If we take into consideration this week’s trades, in 2011 that number has dwindled to six players from four cities.

2010: All Stars from small markets: LeBron James (Cleveland); Al Hordford (Atlanta); Chris Bosh (Toronto) Gerald Wallace (Charlotte); Joe Johnson (Atlanta); Carmelo Anthony (Denver); Steve Nash (Phoenix); Kevin Durant (Oklahoma City); Zach Randolph (Memphis); Chris Paul (New Orleans); Chauncey Billups (Denver); Brandon Roy (Portland); Deron Williams (Utah)

2011 All Stars from small markets: Al Hordford (Atlanta); Joe Johnson (Atlanta); Kevin Durant (Oklahoma City); Chris Paul (New Orleans); Kevin Love (Minnesota); Russell Westbrook (Oklahoma City)

In the last year, LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, and Deron Williams have all fled to the big city. That’s a remarkable amount of talent, especially when you consider that many of the small market all Stars who have stayed put did so because they simply didn’t have the opportunity to leave. You can blame the exodus on the lust for fame and money, but like most things in life, I prefer to blame it on the Boston Celtics and LeBron James.

For years, traditional knowledge was that to build a championship you need one superstar, one really good player, and two to three role players. Take arguably the best team in NBA history the 1995-1996 bulls: Jordan (superstar), Pippen (really good player), Rodman (rebounder), Kukoc (3 point shooter). Just about every really great team in the last 25 years followed this build. Think about all the good 2 player combos: Stockton and Malone, Shaq and young Kobe, Duncan and Parker, the list goes on and on.

The glaring exception to this pattern is the 2008 Boston Celtics. Boston took three superstars who were thirsty for a title and put them on the same team. The result was marvelous. The big three not only wound up beating a very good Lakers team in the championship, but were part of the greatest turnaround in NBA history. The 2008 Celtics improved by a whopping forty two games better than the 2007 squad. To put the turnaround in perspective, it would be the equivalent of the New Jersey Nets winning the championship next year.

Despite the dramatic turnaround people the league didn’t think that the 3 superstar approach was a tenable approach to building a team. Boston hit a lot of luck (pun intended) in building its team. Not only did it pick up guys willing to work for less, but their role players turned out to be better than anyone could have expected. (Show me someone who says they foresaw Rondo turning into an All Star and I will show you a liar.) The traditional belief remained that in order to build a championship team your best bet is to follow traditional build. The 2009 and 20010 Lakers only confirmed this belief as they had one superstar (Kobe), one really good player (Gasol), and three role players (Artest, Odom, and Fisher).

Perhaps the world would have remained the same if it wasn’t for the infamous “Decision.” The unholy union of James, Bosh and Wade has dramatically changed the way we look at building a team in two ways. First, the success of the three superstars with absolutely no supporting cast weakens the traditional understanding that role players are incredibly important. Second, the traditional belief that it would be logistically and financially impossible to get three superstars to want to play on the same team has been proven false.

As a result the big market teams are now greedier than ever. The Knicks have Stodamire and Carmelo and are supposedly trying to lure in Paul. The Lakers have Kobe and Gasol and are supposedly hoping to land Howard

In theory, the rise of the super-team shouldn’t automatically spell the destruction of the smaller markets. In theory Denver could also sign three superstars and be competitive; however in reality they can’t. No disrespect to smaller cities but they cannot attract that much talent. If you don’t believe me ask Deron Williams who unsuccessfully tried to recruit players to play on the Jazz with him. Ask Atlanta who had to make Joe Johnson this summer’s highest paid free agent just to keep him from bolting.

The second reason why small markets can’t get three superstars is that they simply cannot afford it. The NBA’s soft cap allows NBA owners to exceed the cap so long as they are willing to pay the luxury tax. For Jerry Buss and the Lakers, paying the luxury tax is not an issue, but going over the cap would be the death knell for the Charlotte Bobcats. The Lakers pull in almost three times more from their gate receipts than the Bobcats.

Not withstanding, all may not be lost for those smaller markets that cannot create a super-team. First, we are not sure if the super-team experiment will actually work. There are still a lot of very good teams who follow the traditional model who can win this year including the Lakers, the Spurs, and Bulls. The majority of experts still believe that you cannot win a championship without bona-fide role players.

Perhaps more importantly, “The Decision” occurred right before the next collective bargaining agreement. Small market owners are gearing up to fight for a hard salary cap, a franchise tag, and anything they can get to restore parity to the league. It may seem far-fetched, but the current rise of the Super-team may actually result in more parity in the long run.

Jimmer Comparisons

“Chuck Norris wears Jimmer Fredette Pajamas.”

Jimmer Fredette has officially taken over Provo, Utah. And the Jimmer-infused high extends well beyond my little city. Urban dictionary defines the word Jimmer as “One who is in range as soon as he steps off the bus.”

The hype surrounding Jimmer has lead sports talking heads to debate whether Jimmer’s skills can translate to the pro-level. This leads to the inevitable and enjoyable process of drawing comparisons between Jimmer and high profile professional athletes. The usual comparisons are J.J. Reddick, Adam Morrison, Deron Williams, and Stephen Curry, in my opinion all of which are poor comparisons.

J.J. Reddick and Jimmer do have some notable similarities. Both athletes are three point specialists and exceptional free throw shooters, both are white, Reddick played for Duke and according to the Wallstreet Journal Jimmer plays for “the Duke of the West.” But that is where the similarities end. Most obviously, Reddick is a shooting guard. He typically doesn’t create his own shots but catches and shoots. More importantly, Reddick (6’4) is quite a bit taller than Jimmer (6’1). The average shooting guard in the NBA is 6’5. Jimmer’s lack of size will pretty much preclude him from playing any position but point guard at the next level.

The Adam Morrison comparison strikes me as the worse of the comparisons, and frankly a little racist. There are some similarities, both men are white, lead the nation in scoring, and came from smaller schools. But comparing a 6’8 forward with a 6’1 point guard is silly on every level.

Michael Wilbon is the one who has most famously compared Jimmer’s game to Deron Wiliams’s. He reasoned that both players are shorter but carry around a stocky frame, both men are point guards, and both men create their own shots. But there is a reason why Deron Williams was selected 3^rd overall and Jimmer is a border line first round project. Williams is a much better finisher, he is stronger, and most importantly is a superior passer. Jimmer’s career average is only 3.6 assists a game.

The Stephen Curry comparison is the most common. This is mostly due to the hype surrounding both players. Unlike Reddick who was the most hated player in the NCAA, both Jimmer and Curry are /were the most beleoved players in the game. The comparison is bolstered by the fact that both men are undersized (although Jimmer is still shorter) and both are fantastic shooters. However, Curry was a fantastic defender, essentially he is a Jimmer / Jackson Emery hybrid. Jimmer on the other hand, rarely plays any meaningful defense.

So what is a good comparison? One answer would be that it is silly to try and compare one great player to another and that we should just sit back and enjoy the show. The better answer is Derek Fisher. Both men are undersized 6’1, both men are stocky (I think Jimmer could put on the extra 10 pounds if he were to work out), both men play mediocre defense, both look to shot rather than to pass, both are great 3 point shooters, both are excellent free throw shooters, both men possess a certain craftiness when they drive to the lane. Most importantly, both seem to have ice water in their veins and are people who you would want taking the last shot of a game.

This begs the question, could Jimmer become a Laker. Fisher is old, really old and will retire soon. The Lakers will be picking near (hopefully last) the end of the first round and at the beginning of the second round. Exactly the place where Jimmer is predicted to be chosen. The Triangle offense suits Jimmer’s abilities. He wouldn’t be asked of to make very many difficult passes, merely swing the ball around. He doesn’t need to protect the drive because of the height of the forwards. All he would really need to do is nail a deadly three pointer once in a while – something that Jimmer can do, and do well.

The Looming Lock-Out Part 1

I have been thinking a lot about the upcoming NFL lockout. As more and more time passes it seems inevitable that it will happen. This isn’t the first time union and the teams have gotten into a fight. In 1987 the agreement got so bad that the players went on strike forcing the NFL to hire replacement players. The world does not need another “scab season” and certainly does not need another Keanu Reeves movie about a scab season.

The negotiations between the NFLPA and the NFL are so interesting. I plan on writing several pieces on it. Ironically, I have chosen to start my exploration of this topic on the somewhat dry area of antitrust implications. I realize that it is somewhat more boring than other topics, but it seemed to be a logical standing point because an antitrust lawsuit is the best weapon available to the players.

A few months back you may have heard that the several teams voted to decertify the players union. The implications of the players’ choice to decertify are somewhat complicated, but in a nutshell the players are positioning themselves to be able to bring antitrust law suit against the NFL. Labor law does not allow employees to sue their employers for antitrust violations if the employer and a union have agreed upon a collective bargaining agreement. Thus in order to sue the NFL, the players would have to decertify the union and wait for the current collective bargaining agreement to expire.

Even after decertification the players do not have a slam dunk case against the teams. Antitrust law only makes agreements between entities that unreasonably restrain trade illegal. Most of the agreements between the 32 teams are benign or necessary in order for the NFL to create a recognizable product. In order to succeed in an antitrust suit the players will have to show that the 32 NFL teams (1) are separate entities, (2) meant to restrain trade, (3) did in fact restrain trade, and (4) the pro-competitive affects of teams’ agreements do not outweigh the negative consequences of restraining trade. The Supreme Court has recently held that the 32 teams are separate entities. Accordingly, the real question is whether the agreements between the teams restrict trade and whether such a restriction is permissible.

There are a host of different agreements that the players could challenge. The best course of action is to challenge the current free agency system. Under the current system a team gets the exclusive rights to a player for the first 3 years, after which the players become restricted free agents for one year. Considering the average NFL lasts only 3.5 seasons most players never get to become unrestricted free agents. Thus the Houston Texans can continue paying Arian Foster league minimum for at least the first 3 years of his contract. That’s 24 million less than what Stephen Jackson will make over the same time period. Thus, the players argument that free agency restricts trade is pretty straight forward. Free agency restricts teams from competing for younger players services. The NFL’s only hope is to show that their restriction on trade is reasonable. Unfortunately for the teams, the existence of other restrictions such as the salary cap, weaken any argument that free agency is necessary.

The players could also challenge the college draft as being an antitrust violation. The players’ argument that the draft restricts trade is very strong. Once a player is drafted he is precluded from bargaining with any other team. Thus, the draft restrains trade. However, as discussed earlier, there is only an antitrust violation if the anti-competitive effects outweigh the pro-competitive effects. The NFL teams have a good argument that the draft is necessary in order to preserve parity in the NFL. Take the St. Louis Rams for example: last year they were the worst team in the NFL and accordingly got the first pick of the draft. This year the Rams are leading their division. It is likely that a court would reason that the draft is necessary but that it could be done in a manner which is less-restrictive of trade. For instance, limiting the draft to three rounds would allow more players to negotiate with multiple teams but would distribute the best players equally amongst the teams.

Finally the players could also challenge the hard salary cap as being a antitrust act violation. Again, it is easy to show that trade has been restricted. The salary cap reduces the amount of money that teams will spend competing on players and therefore reduces trade. Whether or not the pro-competitive effects justify this restraint on trade is an interesting question. The players would argue that 2010 was an uncapped year and there has been more parity than ever. Nonetheless, I think the NFL has the better argument. Other sports leagues that have soft caps (NBA) or no caps (MLB) do not enjoy the same competitive balance as the NFL. The NHL provides a clear example of the dangers of not having a salary cap. Prior to the lockout player salaries ballooned to a point where the 75% of league revenue was spent on salary, as a result 2/3rds of the teams operated at a loss. The NHLPA’s refusal to compromise on the salary cap issue is the key factor which led to the 2004-2005 lockout.

There are a whole host of other things that the players could assert are antitrust violations. Whether or not the NFL thinks that they could win such lawsuits will likely play a central role in the current negotiations.

5 football thoughts

1. BYU can still make a bowl game

To be bowl eligible a team has to win 50% of its games. BYU has already lost 4 games. Assuming they lose to TCU (4th) and Utah (11th) they would have to win every other game this season. However, the rest of the schedule is not exactly daunting: Wyoming (2-4), UNLV (1-5), CSU (1-5), and New Mexico (0-6). Assuming BYU makes and plays in a bowl game they would likely play some small team from a weak conference... BYU could have a 7 win season.

2. A BCS disaster would be better than a national championship

BSU, TCU, OSU, Oregon, LSU, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Michigan State, Utah, Auburn, and Nevada are all currently undefeated. I don’t see anyone knocking off BSU, TCU, OSU, or Oregon. Throw in an undefeated Big 12 team, and a 0 or 1 loss SEC team and we could have 6 teams, all of which could legitimately claim they have the right to play for a national title.

Now imagine this possible scenario. BSU, TCU, OSU, Oregon, Nebraska, and MSU, all finish undefeated. Oklahoma’s only loss is in the Big 12 championship game to Nebraska, and LSU’s only loss is to Alabama who wins the SEC. Because the ACC and the Big East get automatic bids. 2 teams out of from BSU (#3), TCU (#4), or MSU (#13) Oklahoma(#6) or LSU (#9) would not get to play in a BCS Bowl game while the big east champion west Virginia (#25) and the ACC champion FSU (#16) do.

Two or more teams are going to get hosed. The more people who are angry at the current system the better shot we have at getting som sort of playoff. Whereas if BSU plays in the national championship the BCS lovers are going to claim that the system works. Worse still, if BSU loses to a good Ohio St. team the BCS lovers are going to say that no mid-major deserves to play for a national championship again.

3. The NFC West quarterbacks are awful

This morning I was calling for Alex Smith’s head on Mike Sando’s (an ESPN blogger) Facebook page when an Arizona fan teased me about wanting to get a new QB. My immediate response was to bash Max Hall, and that’s when I realized how bad the QBs in the entire division are.

Name/QB Rating/TDs/INTs
Smith / 71.6 / 6 / 9
Hasselback / 70.7 / 4 / 6
Bradford / 66.5 / 6 / 8
Hall / 60.5 / 0 / 2


To provide some context, amongst starting quarterbacks only Jimmy Clausen, Brett Favre, and Bruce Gradkowski, have worse QB ratings than the highest rated NFC west QB.

4. Max Hall is a winner

I have never liked Max Hall. His arm is weak and everyone I know who has met him as left with a bad taste in their mouth. But you have to give credit where credit is due. Not only did Max Hall become BYU’s all-time winningnest quarterback, but in his first NFL start he beat the defending Super Bowl champions.

5. The 49ers suck but will finish the season better than the Broncos

The 49ers are bad. They are 0-5. However, they have lost 3 out of their 5 games during the last minute to playoff caliber teams. Their remaining schedule is fairly easy. They can still win 6 to 8 games this year.

The Broncos are also bad. They are 2-3. Their remaining schedule is tougher. They will win 4-5 more games this year. Thus, I reason if the 49ers beat the Broncos during week 8, the 49ers will finish the season with a better record.

Perhaps I’m delusional. However, every Bronco fan I have ever met believes they will win the Super Bowl every year...I'm in good company.

Getting Back Up

Remember this?

In 2007 Jake Brown in his final run lost control of his board and fell 45 feet. He hit the ground so hard that his shoes flew off his feet. The impact knocked him unconscious. ESPN commentators stated it was the worst fall they had ever seen.

Jake Brown was 32 years old when he fell. He had never won an X-games gold medal. No one would blame him if he didn't want to continue.

Despite the epic fall, Jake did come back. He won his first gold in 2009.
And then won again last night.

This is why I love sports. It may not be of any lasting importance, but watching stand back up after being beaten down is inspirational. And in our world where forces seem to be conspiring against us to beat us down, we all need a little inspiration.

BYU Sporting Fix.

ESPN Blogger James Walker predicts that John Beck has about a 60% chance of getting cut by the Ravens. http://espn.go.com/blog/afcnorth/post/_/id/14800/afc-north-roster-bubbles

KSL.com has a nice interview piece with John Beck. http://www.ksl.com/?nid=294&sid=11552470

ESPN NFL analyst Len Pasquerelli thinks that Harvey Unga will be the top player taken in Thursday’s supplemental draft. However, Pasquerelli notes that most players taken in the S-draft do poorly. http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story?columnist=pasquarelli_len&id=5375548

MWC.com reports that Jimmer Fredette was one of 20 athletes to be chosen to play on Team USA’s practice squad. http://www.themwc.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/070910aae.html

Ryan Mink has a great piece on TE Dennis Pitta’s journey from a BYU walk-on to the NFL. http://www.baltimoreravens.com/News/Articles/2010/05/From_Unknown_To_Unmatched.aspx

The Salt Lake Tribune reports on BYU’s hiring of Mike Hall as head of BYU’s basketball operations. http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/sports/49916180-77/hall-byu-basketball-mike.html.csp

Talo Steves of TrueBlueSports.com details BYU’s efforts to sign 275 pound high school junior Hiva Lutui. http://byu.scout.com/2/983705.html

The Daily Herald has a piece on BYU basketball’s national championship team. http://heraldextra.com/sports/article_20ecaa16-9bcb-5d6b-9527-c8fbeb690c7d.html

BYU’s official site released next year’s basketball roster and breaks down each position. http://www.byucougars.com/Filing.jsp?ID=14159

Blue Ribbon predicts that BYU football will wind up with an 9-3 record and a shot to get 10 wins in a bowl game. http://insider.espn.go.com/ncf/insider/news/story?id=5358109

5 Winners and Losers of the Summer of LeBron

Winners

D-Wade – Perhaps nobody came out of this mess better than D-Wade. Miami is and will forever be Wade town. Any success the trio has will fall upon him. In many ways this situation is eerily similar to the New York Yankees. A-Rod is the best player but when you think Yankees you think of Jeter. James is going to have a hard time establishing himself as the greatest player of all time living under Wade’s shadow.

Stephen A. Smith – Smith comes out of this ordeal golden. He correctly predicted where the King would land and got a lot of publicity in the process. The last few days before “The Decision” you couldn’t avoid him if you wanted to.

Dan Gilbert – It would be easy to criticize the Cavs owner. If he could have held on to Boozer years ago then LeBron would already have 2 rings. If he would have dealt Shaq’s contract sooner the Cavs may have kept LeBron. If he would have been building for the future, such as the Thunder have done, he would have some pieces to rebuild with. Despite all of Dan Gilbert’s failures, he has successfully turned all the blame towards LeBron. By promising his fans that they will win a title before Miami he has transformed himself into the hero.

Twitter – Twitter established itself as the source for up to the date sports news. With Chris Bosh posted his every move there. Kevin Durant first announced his contract extension there. D-Wade continues to post his feelings there. Sports columnists were able to post their unsubstantiated theories there. It was definitely a lot of good exposure for Twitter.

Players Union – In an economy where everyone is hurting, it was already going to be tough for the owners to explain how their businesses were still turning a profit. Through in the teams’ willingness to throw max deals at Joe Johnson, Amare, and the likes and it is going to be near impossible for them to argue they don’t have the money to raise player salaries.

Losers

King James’s brand – LeBron has been blasted repeatedly by just about every major news agency. Even David Stern has come out and said that LeBron’s actions were “ill-advised.” The King went from universally loved to universally hated in an 1 hour segment.

Atlanta Hawks – How in the world did Joe Johnson end up with the biggest payday this off-season? He might not even be the best player on his own team. This contract will haunt the Hawks for a long time.

Jordan Farmar – When Farmer said that he was going to leave the Lakers he had a perfectly legitimate reason: he wanted to be a starter. Can you explain why then he signed with the Nets? Last time I checked Devin Harris is pretty darned good and isn’t about to retire any time soon.

Utah Jazz – My heart breaks for the Jazz perhaps more than any other team. They lost both Boozer and Korver to the Chicago Bulls. If the Bulls win with a great point guard and those two it may be too much for Jazz fans to handle. Throw in that the Jazz may still lose Mathews and it is a bleak time to be a Jazz fan.

Small market teams – The days when teams picked their players may be limited. Superstars teaming up together may become the new norm. Already there are talks of Chris Paul teaming up with Carmelo and Amare in New York next season. If this does become the new reality it is going to be increasingly more difficult for smaller markets to attract the stars.

Draft Strategy

Disclaimer

I feel that I should begin this article with a disclaimer. Fantasy football is about having fun. The best teams often lose and people often win with strategies based off which player they like most. I personally have had Wes Welker in every league for years simply because he is my favorite player in the NFL. That being said, it is fun to win, and there is a better way to draft than filling your starting spots one by one.

Why do RBs Go off the Board so Early?

Ever wonder why running backs always go off the board first? After all in 2009 nine out of the top ten highest scoring players were quarterbacks. Similarly why do kickers go so late? Last year, Nate Keading outscored such notable players as Marcus Colston, Chad Ochocinco, and LaDainian Tomilson. The answer lies in how deep each position is in a given year. More specifically the point differential between the players within each position.

Running backs go off the board first because there are so few elite backs. Think about it. About half the teams suck at running (ex. the Colts), another third of the teams use several running backs (ex. the Cowboys.) That leaves only a small group of running backs who are capable of putting up a lot of points. Eliminate the injury prone players (ex. Larry Johnson) and there are only a handful of elite running backs.

Calculating the Point Differential

The key to drafting is figuring out how big the drop off is between any given player and the best player of that position that will still be available if you waited a round or two.

Allow me to drive this point home with an example. You have the very first pick in your ten man league. You have decided to spend your pick on the player who is projected to score more points than anyone else, Drew Brees. You then spend the next three rounds picking up a RB and two WRs. At the beginning of the fifth round you realize that you need your second RB so you pick up the best one available, Felix Jones. ESPN projects that the Brees / Jones combo will award you 470 points. Now, if instead you drafted Chris Johnson first overall and waited to pick up an average QB like Tony Romo at the start of the fifth, you would earn 550 points. Thus, even though Brees stands to earn more points than Johnson, Johnson is the better pick.

Now don’t assume what I have said means that you want to pick running backs over any other position. Once you get past those elite running backs things start to even out. For instance, if in our hypothetical we are now picking in the third and seventh rounds and we still need a RB and a QB, it now behooves you to pick the QB first. The best running back you will get in the third is Shone Greene and the best quarterback you will get in the seventh is Matt Ryan. That combo will earn you 391. Conversely, in the third you could still get Tom Brady, and Brandon Jacobs will still be around in the seventh. The Brady / Jacobs combo is worth 438 points.

Watch Out for the Runs

In an ideal world, you could sit down calculate out the drop off between each player and calculate out the perfect draft. But things don’t work out that way.

Let’s say according to your math and ESPN’s projections the best plan of action is to draft a RB in the first round, a WR in the second, a QB in the third, a RB in the fourth, a WR in the fifth, and a TE in the sixth. (I have no idea if this is really a sound strategy.) Things are going to plan until right before you pick in the fifth round someone picks up Dallas Clark and you feel that a run on the TEs is about to happen.

This puts you in a tricky situation. Sticking with your plan to draft a TE in the sixth would now be foolish. Antonio Gates will be gone and the difference between the third and the ninth TE is only 10 points. So you have to decide whether to grab Gates and his 26 point lead over the next best TE, or wait until the eleventh round when you can probably pick up a TE just as good as the one you would have gotten in the sixth.

A similar run could happen with the QBs, so be aware of where the drop off occurs. From the #1 QB to the #5 QB there is a 49 point drop off but from the #6 QB to the #10 QB there is only a 20 point drop off.

This is too complicated

Unless you are a mathematical wizard like Dave Barney or have way too much time on your hands, it is too much work to try and keep all the point differentials straight. There are just too many moving parts. That's alright. You don't need to know the actual point differentials, but be able to identify where the drop offs occur. Some people use a tiered system. For instance, Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, MJD, and Ray Rice are all tier 1 RBs and Benson, Greene and Grant are tier 3 RBs.

I prefer to ask myself, who will still be available if I waited a round to fill that position? Will there still be a good QB in the fourth round? It all boils down to this: the deeper the position is the more likely you can draft a quality player deeper in the draft.

Fantasy Football Busts and Sleepers

Tomorrow is the NBA draft. It’s a time for a great deal of excitement and intrigue. But if your team doesn’t pick in the first round (Lakers, Cleveland, etc) then it’s not quite as exciting. Unlike the NFL draft, the great majority of people who get drafted in the NBA never become starters. The chances a second round player will make a meaningful impact are low. For all you fans whose team is not likely to draft someone awesome, don’t worry because we will be discussing a different type of draft. Fantasy Football. I’ve asked the best of the Blitz league to get their opinion on this year’s sleepers and busts.

Adam Tate – In 2007 he owned a team with Tom Brady, Wes Welker, LaDainian Tomilson, and Antonio Gates and still only placed third in his league.

Bust - Andre Johnson - Don't get me wrong Andre Johnson will still be good. However, I don't think he warrants being the number 1 receiver this year, and definitely don't think he worth the number 7 pick overall. I understand that he has had back to back great seasons. But the Texans have the toughest schedule in the league. There is a five game stretch where they have to play the Jets, Titans, Eagles, Ravens, Titans in consecutive weeks.

Sleeper - Eddie Royal - ESPN current projects Royal to be 163rd best player on the board. That means in a twelve man league he will be available in the 13th round. Granted last year wasn't the best, but a sophomore slump is not unheard of, and during his rookie year Royal pulled in 91 receptions for nearly 1000 yards.

Joe Kenny – In 2008 he played in three leagues including the Blitz League and took GOLD in all three leagues.

Bust – Lots of players are going to be busts this year: Mark Bulger, Jake Delhomme, Tim Hightower, Hester, Forte and DeSean Jackson (in no particular order).

Sleeper - Chad Henne – Henne has an arm plus he stands to gain with the addition of Brandon Marshall.

Kyle Kenny - Kyle Kenny is the commissioner of the Blitz fantasy football league. In five seasons, Kyle has reached the playoffs four times, with three top-three finishes (Gold in 2005). In all leagues played, Kyle has an overall record of 106-93.

Bust – Lesean McCoy - I was very unconvinced with his role spelling (and subsequently replacing) Brian Westbrook in the lineup. Mike Bell is coming off of a year in New Orleans in which he easily matched the numbers of incumbent starter Pierre Thomas (which were good numbers, mind you). While I won’t outright predict McCoy being supplanted as starter like I famously did two years ago with Kurt Warner and Matt Leinart, I do have my doubts that LeSean is the answer in Philadelphia.

Sleeper – Matt Ryan - Matt Ryan had a satisfactory 2009 season… without a fully functional offense at his disposal. I’m not a scout or an analyst, but such professionals have nothing but rave reviews of Matt Ryan’s development as an NFL quarterback. With two years of quarterbacking successful seasons under his belt, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez on the other side of the ball, and a healthy Michael Turner, a breakout season is in the works that will push Matt Ryan’s value up to that of an upper tier quarterback.

Sleeper #2 – Chaz Schilens - Chaz Schilens was set to rise out of obscurity to emerge as the Raiders top nod option coming into the 2009 season when he suffered a broken foot, missing eight games, and returning to one of the worst merry-go-round situations at quarterback possible. While not completely safe to say Jason Campbell is the savior of Oakland, it is comforting to know the Raiders have a serviceable quarterback who posted decent numbers even under a terrible offensive line in Washington. To top that, Chaz’s athletic ability puts him at 6-foot-4, a 4.38 40 and incredible hands during training camp last year. Looking at ESPN’s board, I would be comfortable moving Chaz above several other receivers for the upcoming draft.

Mark Mills – Mark has played with various team names including: Salt Lake Slutzz, Crazy Crack Clowns, Dead Rabbits, and Apocalypse ponies.

Bust - Shonn Greene - I know he's on the Jets, but that doesn't mean he is a sure thing to run wild. I think he might do okay, but to say he is #12 with nothing really proven is too risky, and I can see a bust.

Sleeper - Kevin Kolb - The Eagles pass heavy offense is going to help Kolb rack up the fantasy points. The team obviously has extreme confidence in Kolb, so why should we think otherwise. Remember this is not a rookie on a bad team, this is a guy who has been under the system and learned the right way to lead the team. Does anyone remember Aaron Rodgers??

Matt Christensen – Matt has an overall record of 47-49. He placed second in multiple leagues in 2008.

Bust - Steven Jackson - The guy has been in the top projected rankings for a few years now, and I only remember him having one good season. The Rams are still not good enough to take the load off of him. Every team just stacks the line and plays against him.

Sleeper - Matthew Stafford - I liked how this kid held his own last year. And he had a few games when he did go off and have 3+ touchdowns. I still think that the Lions will have a semi-crappy year, but I think he will be more consistent in his scoring.

Side notes – Ryan Matherws is not a sleeper! In ESPN’s mock draft central he averaging 16^th overall.

How I Learned to Love Ron Artest

In 2009 I hated the Houston Rockets. During the seven game series between the Lakers and the Rockets I even hated them more than the Boston Celtics, New York Yankees, and the SEC. Absolute disdain. I hated Shane Battier and his flawless defense. I hated Aaron Brooks every time he would fly by the slower Derek Fisher. I absolutely hated everything about Luis Scola - especially his greasy nasty hair. Perhaps most of all I hated Ron Artest. I hated him for the melee, I hated his toughness, I hated his outside shot, I hated him.

By contrast, I loved Trevor Ariza. I loved that he went undrafted, loved that he always played hard, loved his three point shooting, most of all I loved the pivotal steals he made during the series with the Rockets. After that series I had decided that the next time I was back in Los Angeles I was going to buy my first Laker jersey, and it would say Ariza.

Then summer rolled around and the Lakers effectively traded my favorite Laker for Ron - I’m going to jump in the stands and murder you - Artest. As a Laker fan I was more than a little on edge. I understood that Ariza was asking for too much money, but Artest? Really?
During the regular season Ron Ron stunk. His offensive numbers dropped dramatically: 17.1 ppg – 11.0 ppg; 5.2 rpg – 4.3 rpg; .748 ft% - .688 ft%; .399 3% - .3555. More disconcerting than Ron’s offensive struggles was the fact that he just didn’t seem as tough. He no longer imposed fear on those he guarded.

Then the playoffs started and Artest threw up two consecutive stink bombs. Game 1: 3-11 shooting and 3 rebounds; Game 2: 2-10 shooting and 4 rebounds. Most notably his three-point shooting was off – way off. During the first round of the playoffs Artest shot a miserable .188% from behind the ark. That’s when the public really turned on him. Every time he got the ball thousands of fans offered silent prayers that he would not shoot. As my roommates pointed out he became the most disrespected starter on an NBA team.

That was the first time I started rooting for Artest. My heart broke for him. It seemed clear that all he wanted to do was put his past behind him. He just wanted the city of L.A. to love him. Instead they hated him. They missed Ariza. They were secretly expecting him to blow up and kill someone at any moment.

He played better during the Utah series, including a brilliant game three on the road. During that game he shot 7-13 and hit 4 three pointers. The Lakers won the game by one point and nailed sucked all the remaining life from the Jazz. And yet, Artest was still disrespected. I started to root for him even more.

He played even better during the Phoenix series. He averaged over 14 points, including a series changing game winner and a 25 point throw down in game 6. Ron Artest was secretly becoming one of my favorites.

Finally, the Lakers met up with the Boston Celtics. Oh how I loathe the Celtics. I am sure that there are few greater pleasures in the world than punching Brian Scalabrine in the face. I am too young to really remember the epic wars in the 60’s and 80’s, but 2008 is more than enough for me. The game 4 meltdown during the 2008 series still gives me nightmares. I cringe when I think of Paul Peirce and that stupid wheelchair.

I was more than a little scared before the start of that first game. But the Lakers came out on fire and wasted the Celtics. The Lakers best player – Ron Artest. The Lakers were an amazing +26 when he was on the court. He shot over 50% from the field, 60% from 3 point land, and 100% from the free throw line. Over the next few games Ron accepted his role as a lock down defender. Paul Pierce still got his points, but it was clear the Lakers were a much better team when Artest was on the court. I really really liked Artest now. I even made some occasional facebook comments about how great he was.

Then Ron Artest won game 7. And make no mistake he was the one who won it. During that first half Kobe and Pau were freaked out of their minds. Every shot that Kobe took was awful. No one could hit the shots that Kobe was taking. And Pau was so nervous that he couldn’t hit a free throw to save his life. (Gasol shot 79% during the season and just 54% during game 7.) Ron Artest on the other hand had 12 second quarter points. He kept the Lakers alive offensively until the rest of the team calmed down Ron stayed awesome down the stretch, hitting a crucial three pointer in the 4th and finishing the game with 20 points. Defensively Artest was even better. He Force Paul Pierce into 5-15 shooting and had 5 steals. Ron Artest was my MVP of the series.

You would think that after his performance during the game I couldn’t get any higher on Ron Artest. You would think wrong. His post game interviews were the funniest things I have seen in a long time. He was bouncing around like a little kid on crack. He thanked his psychiatrist for helping him calm down. He thanked his Dad for beating him up as a kid. He told the world that he was crying before the game. He told the world he was dumb. He even admitted that he didn’t realize he was playing for the championship until they handed him a championship hat. However my favorite correspondence was regarding his crucial three-pointer. He told the world that before he shot the ball he heard the voice of Coach Phil Jackson telling him not to shoot and the voice of God telling him to shoot it.

It is no wonder that Luke Walton said that there is no one on the team that they root for more than Ron. I freaking love Ron Artest.

Texas staying put: What does this mean for the MWC?

Texas announced today that it will remain in the Big 12. Shortly thereafter Texas Tech, and the other Big 12 schools followed suit. Giving us the extremely parodixical situation where the Big 10 has 12 members and the Big 12 only has 10.

What does all this mean for the MWC?

One argument could be made that a Nebraska-less Big 12 is worse than a Boise State driven MWC. If you look at the final standings the MWC finished 4th (Boise State), 6th (TCU), 12 (BYU), and 18th (Utah) whereas the Big 12 only finished 2nd (Texas) and 21st (Texas Tech.) However, MWC shouldn't get their hopes up about stealing the Big 12's automatic bid. In the end the BCS is still about money and Texas brings in more of it than all the MWC schools combined.

More importantly, the MWC may not come out of this whole process unscathed. Now that the Pac 10 has lost its primary target (Texas) it may settle for Utah as a back up plan. This would have two key advantages. First, it would allow the Pac 10 to grab a new TV market. Second, Utah would allow the PAC 10 to finally have a conference final game (under BCS rules you cannot have a league championship game unless you have 12 teams.) This is particularly interesting because the Big 12 teams who were thinking about defecting had no interest in having a championship game.

Would Utah leave? Why wouldn't they? More money, more television time, bigger recruiting market, automatic BCS bid, bragging rights to BYU about being invited while they got snubbed. Sure the rivalry between BYU and Utah will be affected. But the schools could work out some deal where the teams play each other much like BYU plays Utah State every year.

The damage to the MWC might not stop there. The Big 12 may try and rebound by recruiting some more teams. TCU would be the logical choice given their proximity to the rest of the school and their recent success. Fortunately, early reports indicate that the Big 12 seems content only having 10 teams.

Losing Utah would be a big blow to the MWC. There aren't any other teams really worth recruiting. (Unless some really wacky happens and Notre Dame joins.) For now the MWC can do nothing but wait and hope that either the Pac 10 doesn't continue expanding or Utah turns them down.

Big 12 Killers: It’s about more than football.

By Kyle Kenny

Being a Nebraska native, I’ve been watching a little closer than some the whole speculation of Nebraska moving to the Big 10 Conference. Now that move is official. Many have their heads scratching as to why they would move from a conference where they were relative big fish. There are several good reasons, the least having to do with football itself.

I. Show me the money. I am a fan of pro football. I have a lot of friends, however, that are strong proponents for college football. To these friends, they feel more team spirit prevalent and feel it is “less about the money, more about the spirit.” I have always disagreed with these arguments. Measuring team spirit of players and fans between any sport—college or pro—is impossibly subjective of an argument to consider. However, anyone who believes college sports isn’t about the money needs a serious reality check. The mere existence of the BCS is proof that money talks more than passion of the game. Also, while players themselves aren’t necessarily playing for money, some players are playing for the CHANCE to get big money on draft day. Some, as headlined in the news from time to time, DO receive money in the form of kickbacks while attending college. But I am digressing. The Big Ten offers something to Nebraska that the Big 12 couldn’t do during its entire existence: maximize cash flow to the School’s athletic program. I read a recent article that stated on average, the Big Ten schools received as much as $20 M per year from TV contract revenue via the Big Ten network. The Big 12, in comparison, only dished out $7-12 M, depending on the school. Fans nationwide will decry this as a “money grab.” But when you’re talking money in this proportion, it no longer becomes an athletics department issue, but rather a business issue for the school as a whole. This brings me to my next point.

II. Academics. Hopefully, college fans have not forgotten that the team in which they support is not an end in itself. Rather, it is merely an auxiliary to a much more important academic institution for higher learning and career development. Many fans are not aware that schools in the Big Ten are very much academically superior to schools in most other major conferences. While Nebraska is likely not currently on par in academic prestige as current Big Ten schools, the move will likely pressure Nebraska to make the changes to help it conform to the higher standards, and hence higher prestige. For the other several thousand attending, or planning to attend UNL that AREN’T part of any athletics program, dividends will be had in the form of a more relevant and prestigious degree.

III. Insurance. Nebraska knew that the conference was under attack, and with other power schools such as Texas and Oklahoma being targets of other major conferences, Nebraska didn’t want to be the odd man out. Nebraska insisted that it considered all alternatives, and decided the Big Ten invite was something they had wanted for years. Whether this be the real case or not, the application of game theory among the Big Twelve schools in my opinion had a definite role; in this instance of head games, Nebraska concluded that the other schools, despite their verbal stances, were already leaning on leaving. Whether or not that was truly the case will forever be open to speculation.

IV. Sports. Honestly, in my opinion, football (among other sports) itself was the least of the factors leading to the decision to move. I am likely wrong; however, in my defense, I would find difficulty accepting any argument that the Big Ten is far superior to the Big Twelve in strength of schedule, if at all superior. What this move does do is open doors to new regions/states/markets for recruiting purposes for all sports programs in Nebraska Athletics.

It will be intriguing to see the fallout of these conference decisions. Will Texas, Oklahoma, and co. move to the Pac-10? What other schools will the Pac-10 lure away if things don’t go as planned? Will MWC successfully snag Kansas and Missouri to keep itself from being part of the other, smaller conferences left in the dust? Will the Big Twelve figure out a way to salvage itself with its own add-ons of BYU and TCU? Whatever the result, bring on the chaos!