3 Thoughts on the NFL season thus far

1.      The Denver Broncos management is doing everything they can to throw the season and land Andrew Luck.

               

Consider the facts: (1) The Broncos benched Orton, who was the better QB, in favor of Tim Tebow whom everyone but Skip Bayless understands is not ready to be an NFL QB.  (2) The Broncos recently traded Brandon Lloyd. By pulling this trade the Broncos not only loss their best offensive weapon, they also gave an offensive boost to St. Louis who could challenge the Broncos in the race for Luck. (3) The Broncos are reportedly looking to make their team worse in the short term by trading Eddie Royal. (4) The Broncos are completely under-utilizing running back Knowshon Moreno.

Of course one could argue that all of these moves are defensible: Orton’s winning record is lousy, Brandon Lloyd was going to leave next year and the Broncos wanted to get something in return, Eddie Royal is undersized and injury prone and could also leave next year, and Willis McGahee has been better than what was expected.  But when you watch the Broncos play on Sundays, it become clear what their true intentions are.

2.      Jim Harbaugh has imposed his personality on his team

           

At this point last year the 49ers were 1-5.  This year, the 49ers are 5-1 with an impressive comeback victory on the road against the eagles, a home blow-out of the Buccaneers, and an emotional road victory over the previously unbeaten Detroit Lions. Amazingly, the 49ers have made this dramatic improvement with arguably less talented players than last year.  The 49ers loss stud nose tackle Franklin to the Saints, and veteran LB, Spikes, to the Chargers.  Their only real acquisition was WR Braylon Edwards who has sat most of the year due to an injury.

The big change has been the coaching. Harbaugh seems able to get the best out his players.  For instance, Alex Smith is still has fumbling issues and still lacks the ability to be a real areal threat; the 49ers rank 30^th in the league in passing.  But Harbuagh has masked those issues by asking Smith to continually throw quick timing routes.  The result – Smith’s touchdown to interception ratio is amazing and Smith is amongst the very best in the league in total QBR.

More than X’s and O’s, Harbaugh’s biggest impact seems to be a change in attitude. Harbaugh has a reputation of being a fierce competitor to a fault.  As a player he reportedly tracked down and punched a TV analyst who called him soft.  As a collegiate coach, Harbaugh created a mean-spirited rivalry between himself and USC coach Pete Carrol. And if Harbaugh’s tiff with Jim Schwartz is any indication, Harbaugh’s NFL coaching career won’t be any different.

The 49ers seem to have adopted their coach’s overly competitive attitude. When you watch them play they don’t look particularly impressive, but they do look mean and nasty.  After the 49ers completed their comeback over the Eagles, Frank Gore explained that the 49ers simply beat the will to win out of the Eagles. It’s that nastiness which was propelled the 49ers to such a strong start.

3.      The dream team approach simply doesn’t work in the NFL.

            

I was surprised at how well the Miami Heat played this year.  I always believed that to win the NBA you need 1 superstar, 1 semi super start, and about 4 role players. Unfortunately I was proven wrong. Fortunately, however, the Philadelphia Eagles are proving that the Dream team approach doesn’t work in the NFL.  Despite signing just about every marquee free agent over the summer, the Philadelphia Eagles only have 2 unimpressive wins. It won’t get any easier either.  The Eagles still have to play vs. Chicago, at New York Giants, vs. New England, vs. New York Jets, and at Dallas. The Eagles could easily finish the season 7-9. It’s possible that the Eagles turn it around and win the lousy NFC East, but they certainly are no longer Superbowl favorites – and that is good for the league.

What is going on in the Big XII: A Chronology

o Nebraska decides that it will join the Big 10 and Colorado decides to join the Pac 12. This leads us to a strange new world where the Big 12 has 10 teams and the Big 10 has 12 teams.

o Texas and Oklahoma are offered a chance to go to the Pac 12. This would effectively destroy the Big 12. The Big East, MWC, ACC, and SEC start eying what teams they would pick up should the Big 12 dissolve.

o Oklahoma wants to join the Pac 12 but Texas doesn’t.

o Texas negotiates a deal where it can stay in the Big 12 and get a lucrative television deal. Without Texas, the Pac 12 is no longer interested in Oklahoma. Oklahoma gets stuck in the Big 12.

o A year later Texas A&M grows tired of being bullied by Texas and lobbies to join the SEC.

o The SEC informs A&M that it can only be admitted if it has clearance to leave the Big 12.

o Texas A&M seeks permission to leave from the Big 12 conference.

o The Big 12 gives Texas A&M permission to leave; however, the individual teams remain silent.

o Texas A&M makes a public announcement that it plans to leave the Big 12.

o The Big 12 attempts to get back to 10 or 12 teams by inviting Notre Dame, Arkansas, and BYU to join the Big 12. Notre Dame and Arkansas both decline. BYU with-holds judgment until it sees how things will play out.

o The Pac 12 seeing the fragile state of the Big 12 invites Texas and Oklahoma.

o Oklahoma still really wants to go to the Pac 12. Texas would still like to stay in the Big 12. This time Oklahoma has the leverage because the Big 12 without Texas A&M and Oklahoma is pretty weak.

o Eight of the Big 12 schools realize that if Texas A&M, Texas, and Oklahoma leave there will not be a Big 12 conference anymore. The 8 schools inform Texas A&M and the SEC that they will assert their legal rights if Texas A&M joins the SEC.

o The SEC informs Texas A&M that it cannot join until these legal matters are resolved.

o Texas A&M releases a statement stating that it was deceived by the Big 12 and that it is being held hostage.

o Texas and Oklahoma still haven’t made a decision.

o This leads us with three likely scenarios:

o The most likely scenario: Some compromise will occur where Texas A&M joins the SEC, Texas and Oklahoma join the Pac 12, some of the more prominent schools will join other BCS conferences and the other Big 12 schools get left high and dry. College football eventually transforms into 4 super-conferences: the Pac 16, the Big 16 (formally Big 12), the SEC and the Big 15 (formally Big 10).

o The somewhat likely scenario: Texas convinces Oklahoma to stay. The Big 12 invites BYU and the Big 12 survives with 10 teams. This lasts until the next conference realignment at which point the Big 12 either expands or dies.

o The least likely possible scenario: The 8 teams effectively block Texas A&M for another year or two. Nothing happens until the next conference shake-up.

Last Year's Fantasy Predictions

Last year I gathered some the biggest fantasy football nerds I knew of and asked them a very simple question: Who will be 2010's sleepers and who will be 2010's busts. Well 2010 is over and before we make this years predictions it is time to see how they did.

Adam Tate

Last year- Adam predicted that Andre Johnson would not be the #1 receiver due to the rough schedule that the Texans predicted. Adam also predicted that Eddie Royal would bounce back from a disappointing sophmore year.

Analysis - Adam was partially correct. Andre Johnson was not the #1 receiver and in fact finished 8th among WRs, trailing Lloyd, Bowe, White, Jennings, Johnson, Wallace, and Nicks. However, Eddie Royal did not bounce back. He finished the season with a mere 75 points and barely caught half of the passes thrown to him.

Joe Kenny

Last year - Joe had a whole list of players on his bust list including: Bulger, Delhomme, Hightower, Hester, Forte, and Desean Jackson. He also thought that Chad Henne would be 2010's sleeper.

Analysis: Mixed bag. Bulger and Delhomme were awful but no one really expected them to do anything. Hightower and Hester were disapointments. However, Forte finished with 199 points and Jackson was a touchdown machine once he teamed up with Michael Vick. Joe was way off with with his Henne prediction. Henne finished as the 25th QB behind Shaun Hill and John Kitna.

Kyle Kenny

Last year - Kyle predicted that Lesean McCoy would be a bust because Mike Bell would steal many of McCoy's carries. Kyle also predicted that Matt Ryan would become an "upper tier" QB due to his continued development and all the offensive weapons at his disposal.

Analysis - McCoy finished 7th. The only RBs projected to finish ahead of him and met those projections were Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson. As for Matt Ryan... Ryan did improve but still finished 8th among QBs.

Mark Mills

Last year - Mark Mills predicted that Shonne Green was not worth the #12 pick and that Kevin Kolb would become the man in Philly.

Analysis - I wish I would have listened to Mark last year. Shonne Green was indeed a bust, scoring only 86 points. LaDanian Tomlinson, who was supposed to be the backup scored 149. Kevin Kolb didn't become the man in Philly but that was only because Michael Vick was the comeback player of the century.

Matt Christensen

Last year - Matt predicted that Stephen Jackson would not be a top RB because the Rams have no other offensive weapons and teams will stack the box against him. Matt's sleeper was Mathew Stafford, preemptively because Matt likes his name.

Analysis - Matt was mostly right on the Stephen Jackson call. Jackson finished as the 12 RB and dealt with a nagging hip injury all year long. Unfortunately Stafford was injured almost all season long and finished with a mere 49 points. 1 point less than Jimmy Clausen.

Recap: Finding a bona fide sleeper is tough. Not one of us nailed our sleeper projections and some of us were way off base. As a group we fared much better at identifying which players were over-rated. Mark's prediction that Shonne Green would be a bust was probably the best prediction made by the group. Now that your confidence in us is completely and utterly destroyed, make sure to our next article which will give predictions for the 2011 season.

Overrated! - Clap Clap - Clap Clap Clap

(Texas is objectively the most over-rated team over the last 5 years)

Every year the preseason polls come out and every year we look back with 20 / 20 hindsight and notice that the voters missed something. Case in point, last year's National Champion Auburn was ranked 23rd in the preseason polls and Stanford, who finished 4th was not even ranked. Meanwhile Teaxas started the season ranked #6 and finished with a losing record.

This year's poll (http://espn.go.com/college-football/rankings) will be no different. Some team will vastly outperform expectations (Air Force) and another will flounder under the pressure (Texas A&M.)

This conundrum often sparks the debate whether we should rely on preseason polls at all. On the one hand, preseason polls are consistently incorrect and play too big of a factor of determining later polls. But on the other hand, the polls allow fans to get excited for big non-conference games which typically take place in the beginning of the season.

Today's article doesn't take a stance on this controversial issue. Rather it objectively looks at what teams are consistently over-rated and under-rated by the preseason AP voters.

(Andrew Luck lead his Cardinals from being unranked to 4th in the nation.)

Method to the Madness

I compared the AP preseason poll with the AP post season poll. If a team finished two spots ahead of where it was projected, it was awarded 2 points. If it finished two spots behind where it was projected it had 2 points deducted. No team could gain or lose more than 10 points in any given year.

There are some inherent flaws in this system. First, it cannot account for the fact that the poll voters are still biased at the end of the season. Second, it punishes those teams who are highly ranked at the beginning of the season and rewards those who are just outside the top 25.

Observations

* I did not foresee Cincinnati being the most under-rated team over the last 5 years.

* The former Mountain West did really well with BYU, TCU, and Utah all being ranked as the top 10 under-rated teams.

*The voters either vastly under-rate BYU over vastly over-rate BYU.

*After a team outperforms its expectations in one year, the voters tend to over-estimate that teams abilities the following year.

*The SEC only had 1 team (Arkansas) in the top 10 under-rated teams, but also only had 1 team (Georgia) in the top ten over-rated teams.

* The ACC appears to be the most overrated conference with 3 of its teams finishing in the top 10 most over-rated teams.

*Oregon has consistently outperformed its expectations. Posting a positive number for the last 4 years running.

Dream Draft

I have been planning on creating my own mock draft for a while now, but it has just proven too difficult. I have never heard of half of the players projected to go in the first round, and have seen even fewer of them play. So, instead of putting down what I think will happen, I decided to build a draft representing what i would like to see. This of course is subject to 2 ground rules: first, while the draft selections do not have to be probable, they do have to be within the realm of possibility, second, like most mock drafts no trades are allowed. I am also limiting this mock to just the lottery, since history tells us that most players taken outside of the lottery will never start in the NBA. So without further ado here is my 2011 mock draft.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers - Derrick Williams

Many experts believe that Derrick Williams is the best player in this years draft, and after watching him play in the NCAA tournament it is hard to argue with that assessment. However, I am putting Derrick Williams not because I like him, but because i dislike Irving. I dislike Irving from a scouting perspective because he only played a handful of games last year due to injury, but more importantly, I dislike Irving because he seems like a punk. I have listened to several ESPN interviews, and each time i got the distinct impression that Irving was utterly lacking in any humility or grace. After the Lebron fiasco, Cleveland deserves better.

2. Minnesota Timberwolves - Enes Kanter

I'll be honest, one of the main reasons I picked Williams first is the delicious irony of Minnesota considering a point guard. For those who don't remember, the Timberwolves recently spent two high draft choices on point guards. Futhermore, Minnesota is making Ricky Rubio to be the savior of Minnesota basketball (an absurd proclamation considering he was a bench player on his Spanish team.) If really, presented with this proposition I imagine that the Timberwolves would give into one of the underwhelming trade proposals they have been offered. Personally I love the trade rumor of the nubmer 2 pick plus Kevin love for Pau Gasol and Ron Artest, but since there are no trades allowed in this mock draft, I am going with Kanter. The wolves would bump Love down to the floor and be able to play with two 7 footers, a strategy that has worked very well for the Spurs, Lakers, and Mavericks.

3. Utah Jazz - Kyrie Irving

As much as I dislike Irving, the Jazz would be ecstatic if he fell to them at 3. They desperately need someone to D-Will's place, and what better person than the consensus #1 draft prospect. Another bonus, to this scenario is that it eliminates the possibility of Jimmer landing on the Jazz. I love Jimmer, but realistically he probably wont amount to much more than an exciting bench player. Going to the Jazz, would place too high of expectations upon him.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers - Brandon Knight

Cleveland still gets a point guard, and a pretty good one at that. In fact, there are some who project Knight to be a better long term prospect than Irving. The Cavs are going to suck for a while anyway, why not invest in the better long term player.

This scenario may seem like a stretch but it may be Cleveland's best option. Current, rumors have the Jazz taking Kanter at 3. Thus, Cleveland could choose to have Irving and Valanciunas (who wouldn't play for at least a year due to his European league buyout) or Williams and Knight. Heck they could even take Williams and then trade back and pick up Kemba or Jimmer. Or how about this, the Cavs take Williams, the Wolves get so scared that they trade the second pick to Cleveland for the 4th pick and Baron Davis. Thus, Cleveland gets the two best players in the draft. The more and more I think about it, I like the idea of Cleveland taking Williams and watching the T-Wolves freak-out.

5. Toronto Raptors - Kawhi Leonard

I have seen Leonard play on multiple occasions and the kid is a beast. If the Raptors are truly looking for a defensive presence then Leonard should be their man.

6. Washington Wizards - Jan Vesely

Well Vesely is another international prospect that I know nothing about. I do know this much, the Wizards do not need a point guard so that rules out Kemba or Jimmer, and the Wizards do need some rebounding. At 6-11 hopefully Vesely can help out in that category.

7. Sacramento Kings - Kemba Walker

Can you imagine a more fun and entertaining back-court than Tyreke and Kemba? They may not win a lot of games but they sure will score a lot of points. Jimmer would also fit in well here, and supposedly the Maloof's adore him. However, I have other plans for the Jimmer.

8. Detroit Pistons - Jonas Valanciunas

If it were not for Jonas Valanciunas's scary buyout proposition, he would be a top 4 pick. In fact, there a rumors that Cleveland will still take him at 4 and wait a year. If he falls this far then Detroit should snatch him up. Period.

9. Charlotte Bobcats - Bismack Boyombo

Does anyone care about the Bobcats? Honestly, I couldn't name more than 2 players on their entire team. (And no, Jordan doesn't count.) Let's give them another guy that no one has heard of. Ok, seriously though, the Bobcats need a toughness and defense and Boyombo is supposed to be able to supply both.

10. Milwaukee Bucks - Klay Thompson

I like the Bucks. I like Jennings and I love Bogut. I like that Bogut bought prime seats by the opposing bench and filled them up with the loudest most obnoxious fans that he could find. They are a fun team. I think they need a shooter. They have a slasher in Jennings, and a post presence in Bogut. Having a 6-7 shooting guard seems like perfect fit.

11. Golden State Warriors - Tristian Thompson

Another bigger guy for a team that needs some size.

12. Utah Jazz - Markeif Morris

The Jazz will finally lose A.K. and his horrible contract this year. Although most Jazz fans seem happy to have him gone, they will miss his defense and his shot blocking ability. Markeif Morris is a good defender / shot blocker and would be there best bet at filling the void. Thus, in this draft the Jazz come out with a new franchise point guard and a new shot blocking forward, that seems to fit them pretty well from a need standpoint.

13. Phoenix Suns - Jimmer Fredette

This is my favorite pick of the entire mock. For years and years, Steve Nash was not the MVP we know now. He was a shoot first, pass second point guard who didn't play good defense. (sound familiar Jimmer fans?) It wasn't until his last season at the Mavericks that he finally started piecing it all together. Jimmer Fredette has the vision and the intelligence to make a similar transition. I think the process would go so much smoother if he could play behind Nash for a season and model his game after him. Furthermore, the Suns are more willing than most teams to over-look Jimmer's apathetic stance towards defense.

14. Houston Rockets - Nikola Vucevic

My reasoning is simple: Yao Ming is not going to get healthy. Why not replace the biggest man in the NBA with the biggest man in this years draft? This guy has a 9'5" reach. He only has to jump 7 inches to dunk. He averaged a double double last season, and has a pretty good shooting touch. The down side is that he is not the world's greatest athlete. He sounds like the perfect Yao replacement to me.

There it is - my dream Mock. The funny thing is that this draft is so shallow and so uncertain that any one of these picks could actually happen or I could completely miss all 14. In reality, my dream Mock would involve all sorts of crazy trades and the Lakers some how end up with Dwight Howard, and Lebron James ends up playing in Serbia, but even I can't figure out a way for that to realistically happen.

Rise of the Super-Teams: The Beginning of the End for Small Market Teams?

In 2010, roughly half of the All Star ballot (13 players) was made up of players from twelve different small market cities. If we take into consideration this week’s trades, in 2011 that number has dwindled to six players from four cities.

2010: All Stars from small markets: LeBron James (Cleveland); Al Hordford (Atlanta); Chris Bosh (Toronto) Gerald Wallace (Charlotte); Joe Johnson (Atlanta); Carmelo Anthony (Denver); Steve Nash (Phoenix); Kevin Durant (Oklahoma City); Zach Randolph (Memphis); Chris Paul (New Orleans); Chauncey Billups (Denver); Brandon Roy (Portland); Deron Williams (Utah)

2011 All Stars from small markets: Al Hordford (Atlanta); Joe Johnson (Atlanta); Kevin Durant (Oklahoma City); Chris Paul (New Orleans); Kevin Love (Minnesota); Russell Westbrook (Oklahoma City)

In the last year, LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, and Deron Williams have all fled to the big city. That’s a remarkable amount of talent, especially when you consider that many of the small market all Stars who have stayed put did so because they simply didn’t have the opportunity to leave. You can blame the exodus on the lust for fame and money, but like most things in life, I prefer to blame it on the Boston Celtics and LeBron James.

For years, traditional knowledge was that to build a championship you need one superstar, one really good player, and two to three role players. Take arguably the best team in NBA history the 1995-1996 bulls: Jordan (superstar), Pippen (really good player), Rodman (rebounder), Kukoc (3 point shooter). Just about every really great team in the last 25 years followed this build. Think about all the good 2 player combos: Stockton and Malone, Shaq and young Kobe, Duncan and Parker, the list goes on and on.

The glaring exception to this pattern is the 2008 Boston Celtics. Boston took three superstars who were thirsty for a title and put them on the same team. The result was marvelous. The big three not only wound up beating a very good Lakers team in the championship, but were part of the greatest turnaround in NBA history. The 2008 Celtics improved by a whopping forty two games better than the 2007 squad. To put the turnaround in perspective, it would be the equivalent of the New Jersey Nets winning the championship next year.

Despite the dramatic turnaround people the league didn’t think that the 3 superstar approach was a tenable approach to building a team. Boston hit a lot of luck (pun intended) in building its team. Not only did it pick up guys willing to work for less, but their role players turned out to be better than anyone could have expected. (Show me someone who says they foresaw Rondo turning into an All Star and I will show you a liar.) The traditional belief remained that in order to build a championship team your best bet is to follow traditional build. The 2009 and 20010 Lakers only confirmed this belief as they had one superstar (Kobe), one really good player (Gasol), and three role players (Artest, Odom, and Fisher).

Perhaps the world would have remained the same if it wasn’t for the infamous “Decision.” The unholy union of James, Bosh and Wade has dramatically changed the way we look at building a team in two ways. First, the success of the three superstars with absolutely no supporting cast weakens the traditional understanding that role players are incredibly important. Second, the traditional belief that it would be logistically and financially impossible to get three superstars to want to play on the same team has been proven false.

As a result the big market teams are now greedier than ever. The Knicks have Stodamire and Carmelo and are supposedly trying to lure in Paul. The Lakers have Kobe and Gasol and are supposedly hoping to land Howard

In theory, the rise of the super-team shouldn’t automatically spell the destruction of the smaller markets. In theory Denver could also sign three superstars and be competitive; however in reality they can’t. No disrespect to smaller cities but they cannot attract that much talent. If you don’t believe me ask Deron Williams who unsuccessfully tried to recruit players to play on the Jazz with him. Ask Atlanta who had to make Joe Johnson this summer’s highest paid free agent just to keep him from bolting.

The second reason why small markets can’t get three superstars is that they simply cannot afford it. The NBA’s soft cap allows NBA owners to exceed the cap so long as they are willing to pay the luxury tax. For Jerry Buss and the Lakers, paying the luxury tax is not an issue, but going over the cap would be the death knell for the Charlotte Bobcats. The Lakers pull in almost three times more from their gate receipts than the Bobcats.

Not withstanding, all may not be lost for those smaller markets that cannot create a super-team. First, we are not sure if the super-team experiment will actually work. There are still a lot of very good teams who follow the traditional model who can win this year including the Lakers, the Spurs, and Bulls. The majority of experts still believe that you cannot win a championship without bona-fide role players.

Perhaps more importantly, “The Decision” occurred right before the next collective bargaining agreement. Small market owners are gearing up to fight for a hard salary cap, a franchise tag, and anything they can get to restore parity to the league. It may seem far-fetched, but the current rise of the Super-team may actually result in more parity in the long run.

Jimmer Comparisons

“Chuck Norris wears Jimmer Fredette Pajamas.”

Jimmer Fredette has officially taken over Provo, Utah. And the Jimmer-infused high extends well beyond my little city. Urban dictionary defines the word Jimmer as “One who is in range as soon as he steps off the bus.”

The hype surrounding Jimmer has lead sports talking heads to debate whether Jimmer’s skills can translate to the pro-level. This leads to the inevitable and enjoyable process of drawing comparisons between Jimmer and high profile professional athletes. The usual comparisons are J.J. Reddick, Adam Morrison, Deron Williams, and Stephen Curry, in my opinion all of which are poor comparisons.

J.J. Reddick and Jimmer do have some notable similarities. Both athletes are three point specialists and exceptional free throw shooters, both are white, Reddick played for Duke and according to the Wallstreet Journal Jimmer plays for “the Duke of the West.” But that is where the similarities end. Most obviously, Reddick is a shooting guard. He typically doesn’t create his own shots but catches and shoots. More importantly, Reddick (6’4) is quite a bit taller than Jimmer (6’1). The average shooting guard in the NBA is 6’5. Jimmer’s lack of size will pretty much preclude him from playing any position but point guard at the next level.

The Adam Morrison comparison strikes me as the worse of the comparisons, and frankly a little racist. There are some similarities, both men are white, lead the nation in scoring, and came from smaller schools. But comparing a 6’8 forward with a 6’1 point guard is silly on every level.

Michael Wilbon is the one who has most famously compared Jimmer’s game to Deron Wiliams’s. He reasoned that both players are shorter but carry around a stocky frame, both men are point guards, and both men create their own shots. But there is a reason why Deron Williams was selected 3^rd overall and Jimmer is a border line first round project. Williams is a much better finisher, he is stronger, and most importantly is a superior passer. Jimmer’s career average is only 3.6 assists a game.

The Stephen Curry comparison is the most common. This is mostly due to the hype surrounding both players. Unlike Reddick who was the most hated player in the NCAA, both Jimmer and Curry are /were the most beleoved players in the game. The comparison is bolstered by the fact that both men are undersized (although Jimmer is still shorter) and both are fantastic shooters. However, Curry was a fantastic defender, essentially he is a Jimmer / Jackson Emery hybrid. Jimmer on the other hand, rarely plays any meaningful defense.

So what is a good comparison? One answer would be that it is silly to try and compare one great player to another and that we should just sit back and enjoy the show. The better answer is Derek Fisher. Both men are undersized 6’1, both men are stocky (I think Jimmer could put on the extra 10 pounds if he were to work out), both men play mediocre defense, both look to shot rather than to pass, both are great 3 point shooters, both are excellent free throw shooters, both men possess a certain craftiness when they drive to the lane. Most importantly, both seem to have ice water in their veins and are people who you would want taking the last shot of a game.

This begs the question, could Jimmer become a Laker. Fisher is old, really old and will retire soon. The Lakers will be picking near (hopefully last) the end of the first round and at the beginning of the second round. Exactly the place where Jimmer is predicted to be chosen. The Triangle offense suits Jimmer’s abilities. He wouldn’t be asked of to make very many difficult passes, merely swing the ball around. He doesn’t need to protect the drive because of the height of the forwards. All he would really need to do is nail a deadly three pointer once in a while – something that Jimmer can do, and do well.

The Looming Lock-Out Part 1

I have been thinking a lot about the upcoming NFL lockout. As more and more time passes it seems inevitable that it will happen. This isn’t the first time union and the teams have gotten into a fight. In 1987 the agreement got so bad that the players went on strike forcing the NFL to hire replacement players. The world does not need another “scab season” and certainly does not need another Keanu Reeves movie about a scab season.

The negotiations between the NFLPA and the NFL are so interesting. I plan on writing several pieces on it. Ironically, I have chosen to start my exploration of this topic on the somewhat dry area of antitrust implications. I realize that it is somewhat more boring than other topics, but it seemed to be a logical standing point because an antitrust lawsuit is the best weapon available to the players.

A few months back you may have heard that the several teams voted to decertify the players union. The implications of the players’ choice to decertify are somewhat complicated, but in a nutshell the players are positioning themselves to be able to bring antitrust law suit against the NFL. Labor law does not allow employees to sue their employers for antitrust violations if the employer and a union have agreed upon a collective bargaining agreement. Thus in order to sue the NFL, the players would have to decertify the union and wait for the current collective bargaining agreement to expire.

Even after decertification the players do not have a slam dunk case against the teams. Antitrust law only makes agreements between entities that unreasonably restrain trade illegal. Most of the agreements between the 32 teams are benign or necessary in order for the NFL to create a recognizable product. In order to succeed in an antitrust suit the players will have to show that the 32 NFL teams (1) are separate entities, (2) meant to restrain trade, (3) did in fact restrain trade, and (4) the pro-competitive affects of teams’ agreements do not outweigh the negative consequences of restraining trade. The Supreme Court has recently held that the 32 teams are separate entities. Accordingly, the real question is whether the agreements between the teams restrict trade and whether such a restriction is permissible.

There are a host of different agreements that the players could challenge. The best course of action is to challenge the current free agency system. Under the current system a team gets the exclusive rights to a player for the first 3 years, after which the players become restricted free agents for one year. Considering the average NFL lasts only 3.5 seasons most players never get to become unrestricted free agents. Thus the Houston Texans can continue paying Arian Foster league minimum for at least the first 3 years of his contract. That’s 24 million less than what Stephen Jackson will make over the same time period. Thus, the players argument that free agency restricts trade is pretty straight forward. Free agency restricts teams from competing for younger players services. The NFL’s only hope is to show that their restriction on trade is reasonable. Unfortunately for the teams, the existence of other restrictions such as the salary cap, weaken any argument that free agency is necessary.

The players could also challenge the college draft as being an antitrust violation. The players’ argument that the draft restricts trade is very strong. Once a player is drafted he is precluded from bargaining with any other team. Thus, the draft restrains trade. However, as discussed earlier, there is only an antitrust violation if the anti-competitive effects outweigh the pro-competitive effects. The NFL teams have a good argument that the draft is necessary in order to preserve parity in the NFL. Take the St. Louis Rams for example: last year they were the worst team in the NFL and accordingly got the first pick of the draft. This year the Rams are leading their division. It is likely that a court would reason that the draft is necessary but that it could be done in a manner which is less-restrictive of trade. For instance, limiting the draft to three rounds would allow more players to negotiate with multiple teams but would distribute the best players equally amongst the teams.

Finally the players could also challenge the hard salary cap as being a antitrust act violation. Again, it is easy to show that trade has been restricted. The salary cap reduces the amount of money that teams will spend competing on players and therefore reduces trade. Whether or not the pro-competitive effects justify this restraint on trade is an interesting question. The players would argue that 2010 was an uncapped year and there has been more parity than ever. Nonetheless, I think the NFL has the better argument. Other sports leagues that have soft caps (NBA) or no caps (MLB) do not enjoy the same competitive balance as the NFL. The NHL provides a clear example of the dangers of not having a salary cap. Prior to the lockout player salaries ballooned to a point where the 75% of league revenue was spent on salary, as a result 2/3rds of the teams operated at a loss. The NHLPA’s refusal to compromise on the salary cap issue is the key factor which led to the 2004-2005 lockout.

There are a whole host of other things that the players could assert are antitrust violations. Whether or not the NFL thinks that they could win such lawsuits will likely play a central role in the current negotiations.